HOUSTON – New data released by researchers Friday pushed the peak of the coronavirus outbreak in Texas to nearly the end of April.
The model provided by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine now predicts the peak of the outbreak in Texas will happen on April 26.
This is the model that many government entities, including in Houston and Harris County, use to help make plans to deal with the pandemic. The model is used in conjunction with local data.
Why the change?
As more data about COVID-19 becomes available, the projections should theoretically get more accurate. So, if your workplace or local municipality suggests a certain day for a peak, ask officials what model or models they are following.
Projecting a peak date for COVID-19 is like tracking a hurricane -- you can’t look at the one line for landfall, you have to consider the entire “cone of uncertainty.” In the case of COVID-19, look at the bottom, middle and top for projections.