Arthur Degenerates To A Low Pressure Area Along The Upper Texas Coast

Discussion

At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur was located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 94.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the east-northeast Thursday through Friday. On the forecast track, the remnants of Arthur should move farther inland over southeastern Texas and western Louisiana tonight, then cross the southeastern United States Thursday through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. While additional weakening is expected as the system moves inland, the remnants of Arthur will continue to produce widespread heavy rains across the southeastern United States during the next few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

Watches and Warnings

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All coastal watches and warnings are discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

None.

Land Hazards

Key messages for remnants of Arthur can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Arthur is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher totals near 20 inches, through early Friday from the Mid and Upper Texas coast east-northeast into southern and central portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, along with western portions of Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. This could generate dangerous to life-threatening flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with the remnants of Arthur, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated with Arthur, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html.

WIND: Winds gusts to tropical-storm force are possible along the Louisiana coast tonight.

STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the Upper Texas coast but will continue to subside overnight.

SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the northwestern Gulf Coast for the next day or two. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ripCurrents

TORNADO: A few tornadoes are possible tonight across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi, and tomorrow into parts of Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle.