Houston weather alert March 15-16: Cold front delivers thunderstorms,45 mph gusts, fire weather risks, and feels-like temps across the metro, Katy, Sugar Land, Brenham, The Woodlands, and Southeast Texas. – Thunderstorms, Strong Winds, and Fire Risk Ahead of Sharp Cold Front: “Feels-Like Temps” dropping into the 30s and 40s by Monday Morning. Here’s everything you need to know to plan your day ahead of the cold front headed our way tonight.
WATCH:
Happening TODAY: Your weather team is closely tracking multiple watches, advisories, and severe weather risks as a strong cold front approaches Houston, pushing temperatures well below average starting tonight.
Wind Advisory: Starts this morning at 10 to 6 Monday night. Expect sustained south-southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 40-45 mph today, shifting northerly and remaining gusty post-frontal passage Sunday night into Monday. Make sure to take some time today to secure loose items as wind gusts really pick up tonight!
The shift from southerly to northerly winds behind the front replaces our moist Gulf air with drier air from the north which causes our humidity to drop which increases fire danger as our winds pick up.
Fire Weather Watch starts after our front pushes through: Monday morning through Monday evening
Winds gusting 25-35 mph (higher in spots), combined with very low relative humidity dropping to 18%, from the shift in winds, creates dangerous conditions for rapid wildfire spread, especially along and west of I-45 and near the coast.
Now let’s talk about thunderstorms for today and our severe weather risk:
We’ll watch for strong winds, the chance for thunderstorms and large hail.
What’s the risk?
It’s a question a lot of people ask us when we have severe weather. We use a 5-level system to help tell the weather story, risks and tone.
According to NOAA and NWS:
Marginal Risk 1 out of 5: Green.
An area of severe storms of either limited organization and longevity, or very low coverage and marginal intensity.
However, areas like Liberty and Livingston are a slight Marginal Risk 2 out of 5.
Slight Risk 2 out of 5: Yellow.
An area of organized severe storms, which is not widespread in coverage with varying levels of intensity.
But what’s the real difference?
The green (Marginal): Areas indicate isolated, iffy potential: severe weather could happen in a few spots, but most storms will likely remain disorganized and spotty.
The yellow (Slight): Areas have a more organized and reliable setup: scattered storms with better structure, increasing the odds of seeing damaging winds, large hail, or even a tornado or two in those zones.
However, neither is a “major outbreak” scenario (that would be a 4 or 5/High risk).
Timing: Could speed up or slow down but as of this morning:
Right now, we’re tracking a fast, powerful front pushing through Houston from 7-10 tonight.
7 pm: The Wood lands, Conroe, Livingston
8 pm: El Campo, Houston, Winnie
9 pm: Coastal communities as the front pushes off the coast
OUR WEATHER RISKS FOR TODAY:
15% Wind risk for areas like Liberty and Livingston while areas in brown are 5%.
5% hail risk for areas in brown for areas like Huntsville, Houston, Livingston and Liberty.
But thanks to the cold front and the winds - our feels like temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s. Thankfully, a high-pressure system will warm us mid-week, but make sure to have your coat ready the next couple of days.