National Hurricane Center Tropical Track:
HOUSTON – Erin is now a category 5 hurricane, the first of the 2025 hurricane season.
The National Hurricane Center is expecting Erin to maintain category 5 Hurricane as it pushes northwest.
The cone, officially called the “cone of uncertainty” outlines where the center is most likely to travel, widening over time because forecast uncertainty grows.
It’s important to remember the cone does not show storm size or impacts; dangerous winds, rain, and surge can happen well outside the cone.
Erin will bring heavy rainfall across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and other islands along the northern Leeward chain. Some areas could pick up 2 to 4 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts from through Saturday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding and mudslides.
Erin will move west-northwest by the weekend it currently is expected to curve to the north. This is because of the Bermuda High.
The Bermuda High is a large area of high pressure in the Atlantic that steers hurricanes by controlling the flow of air around it. When it shifts or weakens, its winds can curve storms northward, often pulling them away from the tropics and toward the U.S. East Coast.
However, models have the high pressure on the stronger side and pushing it away from the United State’s east coast.
We will monitor for any slight changes to the forecast track.
There will be no impacts felt from Erin but we are still expecting scattered tropical downpours Friday and Saturday from a weak disturbance in the gulf.