With just one day before election night, Texas voters are deciding in the most expensive Senate primary in state history, a race political analysts say could have national consequences.
Millions of dollars have poured into the contest, particularly on the Republican side, as incumbent Sen. John Cornyn faces Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Congressman Wesley Hunt in a closely watched primary battle.
According to political advertising tracker AdImpact, the Cornyn campaign has spent about $110 million, the most ever recorded in a Texas Senate primary.
Rice University political science professor Mark Jones says Cornyn and his allies are driving much of that spending.
“The Cornyn campaign and its allies have accounted for probably over half of the expenditures in this campaign thus far, most of it promoting Senator Cornyn, but a significant amount of it also attacking Ken Paxton and Wesley Hunt,” Jones said.
Television attack ads have blanketed Texas airwaves in recent weeks, underscoring just how high the stakes have become.
Why so much money?
Jones says the spending is strategic.
“Right now Republicans have a 53 to 47 advantage, and Democrats really only have two low-hanging fruit that they can go after,” Jones said.
He says some Republicans are concerned that if Paxton tops the Republican ticket, it could put the seat in play.
“With an increasingly polarizing and unpopular Donald Trump in the White House and a deeply flawed candidate like Ken Paxton at the top of the Texas ticket… the result could be Democrats winning statewide for the first time since 1994,” Jones said.
Such a scenario, he added, could potentially cost Republicans control of the U.S. Senate.
Who is on the ballot?
On the Republican side, voters are choosing between:
- Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn
- Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton
- Congressman Wesley Hunt
On the Democratic side:
- Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett
- State Representative James Talarico
While Republican turnout is higher than typical for a primary, Jones says Democratic participation is breaking records for a non-presidential election year.
“You have a marquee race between two very popular candidates, Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico, who are both running strong campaigns,” Jones said.
With turnout surging and spending at historic levels, analysts say Texas voters are not just choosing nominees, they could be influencing the balance of power in Washington.
Current polling suggests it is unlikely a Republican candidate will secure more than 50% of the vote, meaning the race could head to a runoff in May.
Election Day is Tuesday.