Democratic state Rep. James Talarico is leading both of his prospective Republican opponents in a new poll of Texas’ U.S. Senate race — though the result is within the margin of error in either scenario, suggesting a close contest in November.
The poll, conducted by Texas Public Opinion Research from April 17 to 20, found Talarico leading Sen. John Cornyn by three percentage points, 44% to 41%. The Austin Democrat leads Attorney General Ken Paxton by a margin of five percentage points, 46% to 41%. The survey included 1,018 likely general election voters and had a margin of error of +/-3.3 percentage points.
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TPOR is a nonpartisan public opinion research group directed by Democratic strategist Luke Warford. No Democrat has won a statewide race in Texas since 1994, and in recent cycles, polls have routinely offered rosy projections for the minority party that are not borne out in November.
Still, Democrats are hopeful that President Donald Trump’s flagging approval ratings, paired with backlash from Latino voters over the economy and the White House’s immigration policies, will create an environment more akin to 2018, when Democrat Beto O’Rourke came within 3 points of unseating GOP Sen. Ted Cruz.
Cornyn and Paxton are competing in a May 26 runoff to be the Republican nominee for Senate and take on Talarico, who won a competitive primary of his own in early March. A handful of polls throughout the cycle, some nonpartisan and some sponsored by Democrats, have found Democratic candidates with narrow leads or within the margin of error in hypothetical general election matchups.
Closely watched by politicos around the country, Texas’ Senate contest already features the most expensive primary on record, with most of the money coming on the Republican side in support of Cornyn. The Cook Political Report considers the seat to be “likely Republican,” but the messy Senate Republican runoff, Talarico’s fundraising prowess and a wave of Democratic overperformances in special elections have both parties eyeing the race with heightened interest.
Cornyn and his supporters have argued the longtime senator would be a stronger general election candidate than Paxton in a cycle in which the national environment is expected to be tough for Republicans. The TPOR poll found little variance in how the two Republicans perform in hypothetical matchups with Democrats.
In both scenarios, Talarico’s support is heavily powered by voters of color, college-educated Texans and independents. Among Black voters, Talarico leads Cornyn by 51 percentage points and Paxton by 56 percentage points. Among Latino voters, Talarico leads Cornyn by a 32-point margin and Paxton by a 27-point margin.
Independents broke heavily for the Democrat in both matchups: Talarico leads 51% to 29% among the group against Cornyn, and 53% to 28% with independents against Paxton.
The poll also found that more voters had a favorable impression of Talarico than those with unfavorable views — 41% to 34%, with the rest saying they were unsure. Meanwhile, Paxton and Cornyn are underwater by 10 and 15 percentage points, respectively, the two lowest favorability marks among all candidates in the survey.
Most polling of the Republican runoff has found it to be a neck-and-neck contest or Paxton leading by single digits. A TPOR poll of the runoff, conducted April 6 to 7, found Paxton up by 8 percentage points.
Beyond the Senate race, the TPOR poll found Republicans leading in the high-profile contests for governor and attorney general — though the former race is also within the margin of error.
In the survey, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott led the Democratic nominee, state Rep. Gina Hinojosa of Austin, 48% to 43%.
The poll found that while Hinojosa is leading with both Latinos and independents, Abbott has stronger support than Cornyn and Paxton among those groups.
Paxton’s decision to run for Senate opened up the attorney general seat for the first time in over a decade, drawing crowded Democratic and Republican primaries that are both being decided by runoffs. On the Democratic side, Dallas state Sen. Nathan Johnson is facing former Galveston mayor Joe Jaworski. In the Republican runoff, voters will pick between Galveston state Sen. Mayes Middleton and Austin U.S. Rep. Chip Roy.
The TPOR poll asked voters whom they would pick between the Democrat and the Republican, rather than measuring each hypothetical general election matchup. It found Republicans leading the attorney general race, 45% to 39%.
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