HOUSTON – After nearly three weeks without measurable rain, Southeast Texas is finally getting some much-needed moisture and it’s coming in waves.
This likely will impact Passover and Easter plans so continue to check on this forecast.
It will not be a washout, but you’ll want to stay weather aware every day. We’ll see scattered showers possible, but Thursday morning and late Saturday/early Sunday are our best chances for heavy downpours. In fact, there is a flood threat late Saturday through around 7 AM Sunday. This means Easter egg hunts in the morning will likely be muddy, but there’s hope for conditions to improve by the afternoon on Easter Sunday.
Before we dive into the forecast, I do want to stress, this is a preliminary forecast. Timing can absolutely shift by a few hours so continue to check back on this article as we get closer to the event.
Wednesday: Scattered Rainfall Chances
Rain chances begin to ramp up midweek as moisture increases across the region.
Wednesday brings scattered showers with warm, humid conditions and highs in the mid-80s. Rain coverage won’t be widespread, but everyone has a shot at seeing something, especially areas north of I-10. These will be similar to streamer showers and storms we see in the summertime. This means Passover dinners should be dry.
Thursday: More Widespread Storm Chances
Thursday is the more active day. A nearby front and stronger upper-level support could bring a line of thunderstorms, mainly late morning into the afternoon. Some storms may produce heavier downpours, and isolated areas could pick up around 1 inch or more of rain.
The front will move from the NW to the SE with the primary line of storms reaching the Brazos Valley Thursday around 7AM, before racing to Houston mid-morning. There can be some showers and storms ahead of the primary line, so plan for extra time for the morning commute as roads will be wet.
Thursday afternoon looks to be mostly dry.
Friday: A break in the action
Rain chances drop off significantly Friday, with only a slight chance of a stray shower. Skies stay mostly cloudy, and it remains warm and humid with highs in the mid-80s.
Saturday into Sunday: Stronger front, heavier rain
The next and more impactful system arrives over the weekend.
Saturday starts warm and muggy with a few spotty showers possible early, but the main event comes later in the day into the overnight hours.
A stronger cold front will push through, bringing showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning.
This is when we’re watching for the potential of heavier rainfall. Most areas could see an additional 0.5 to 1.5 inches, with locally higher amounts possible.
Because of this, there is a flood threat from Saturday afternoon through around 7 AM Sunday.
Easter Sunday: Improving, but not perfect
Some lingering showers may still be around early Sunday morning, especially for sunrise services or early egg hunts.
The good news: conditions should gradually improve through the day as drier air moves in. Skies will likely stay mostly cloudy, but rain should taper off, allowing for a better Easter afternoon.
Temperatures will also turn cooler, with morning readings in the upper 50s to low 60s and afternoon highs near 70.
The good news, we need this rain. Southeast Texas has been stuck in drought, so this will definitely help, even if it doesn’t fix everything overnight.
With several rounds of rain and a potential for heavier downpours this weekend, make sure you’re checking back in for updates as we fine-tune the timing.