Rain Chances Return:
We are keeping a close eye on the mid-week forecast as several low-pressure systems and cold fronts approach Texas through the weekend. Ahead of the fronts, a persistent southeasterly wind will increase humidity and moisture.
Wednesday: Warm and muggy is the trend this week!
But we’re watching the chance for a few strong to possibly isolated thunderstorms, mainly for areas west of I-45 Wednesday. Our risk rate is 1 out of 5 (Marginal): Isolated severe storms are possible — limited in duration, coverage, and intensity. We could get a light rain in the morning, but our chances pick up from noon to dinner time for some, not all.
7–11 a.m.: Chance for light rain in some spots (not all) on the west side of the map
Noon–5 p.m.: A couple of cells could develop, so the weather team will keep a close eye on the west and north parts of the area.
Weekend Forecast:
Let’s talk about the chance for rain this weekend, or better yet, the uncertainty around it.
We’re monitoring multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday, with the highest chances in northern areas like the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods. It really depends on whether the fronts we’re tracking stall farther north or push south.
Right now, American models are leaning toward lower rainfall totals, while European models show higher amounts.
It’s still early in the week, so we’ll get a clearer picture as we get closer. But it never hurts to chat about it now—because if you’re like me, you like to plan ahead, especially if you’re hoping for a little something special with family after a long work week.
This rain is much needed, as drought conditions have led to burn bans across 14 counties in southeast Texas. Even if your county isn’t listed below, all of SE Texas is dealing with elevated fire danger. Here are some reminders: do not leave a fire unattended, avoid anything that could spark, do not drag chains, never park or drive over tall grass, and never toss cigarettes on the ground.
Your Extended Forecast:
You can our 10 is staying in the 80s, but the big difference will be more clouds, humidity, and rain chances. Next Sunday, we will even spring forward as Daylight Saving Time begins.