HOUSTON, Texas – Houston is in for a weather shift this week, starting with rain today before temperatures plunge and a rare ice threat develops by the weekend.
Forecasters warn that freezing rain and dangerously cold air could create hazardous travel conditions as Arctic air moves into the region, making the timing of this system critical for impacts across the Houston area.
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Wednesday, Jan. 21 — Wet Wednesday Begins
Houston starts the day with rain showers possible throughout Wednesday, with the greatest likelihood in the afternoon as a weak system moves through the region. Showers are expected ahead of a cold front on Wednesday evening, but no flooding or severe weather is anticipated.
Rain totals will generally stay under about a half-inch, with the highest amounts near the coast.
Temperatures during the day will be relatively mild compared to what’s coming later in the week, with highs in the 60s as the area remains in the warm sector of the approaching system.
Thursday, Jan. 22 — Brief Dry Break
After Wednesday’s showers, Houston should dry out Thursday with a brief respite from precipitation and continued mild temperatures. This will be a key day for residents to prepare homes, wrap pipes, and take action before the cold arrives.
Friday, Jan. 23 — Cold Front Approaches
A powerful Arctic cold front begins its march into Texas on Friday. Rain may return ahead of the front, but temperatures will still be above freezing during the day.
By Friday evening, the first surge of much colder air will begin filtering into the region, dropping temperatures sharply from the mild readings earlier in the week. Models suggest highs near 70 °F during the day, then plummeting later Friday into Friday night as the cold air crosses the state.
Saturday, Jan. 24 — Freezing Temperatures and Ice Risk
This is the critical day. The Arctic air mass will be fully in place by Saturday morning and afternoon, causing temperatures to fall below freezing. The timing of the front and remaining moisture is key: if moisture lingers with sub-32 °F air, Houston could see freezing rain and sleet Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, especially north of I-10.
Forecasters emphasize that timing matters; if the colder air moves in fast enough while precipitation is ongoing, freezing rain is more likely. If precipitation ends before temperatures fall below freezing, Houston may only see a hard freeze with cold rain ending first.
Sunday, Jan. 25 — Hard Freeze and Lingering Cold
The Arctic air mass will stick around into Sunday, with continued sub-freezing lows and wind chills well below normal. Hard freeze conditions are likely, and temperatures may stay in the 20s and 30s through much of the day and night.
At this point, any standing water from earlier rain or moisture may freeze over, increasing the risk for icy patches on roads and elevated surfaces.