HOUSTON – A tropical system is being closely monitored by KPRC 2’s Weather team as it’s expected to impact much of the Gulf Coast states through the end of the week.
Potential tropical development in the Gulf may bring rain and flooding
At this point, the development chances of a tropical depression or named storm (Dexter) remain at 40 percent as the week continues.
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Forecast maps show the system moving over Florida and into the Gulf, with an increase in rain chances likely for a broad area stretching from Houston and Southeast Texas to Louisiana.
The primary risk at this stage is heavy rainfall, especially as the disturbance heads inland or organizes further. The main impact day for Houston and SE Texas will be Friday.
Uncertain storm track and timing for Houston, Southeast Texas, and Louisiana
The forecast path still has some measure of uncertainty, however, we’re starting to see some better agreement with the tropical ensemble models. According to KPRC 2’s meteorologists, with the center of the tropical disturbance so close to land, it likely will struggle to stay over open Gulf water, which should limit it’s impact/intensity.
Right now, Houston isn’t expected to see a tropical depression or storm form directly overhead. However, the meteorologist notes that, due to the system’s disorganization and proximity to land, model predictions may not be reliable until 24 to 48 hours before impact. Rain could begin as early as Friday and stick around through the weekend and even into early next week, depending on the final path.
Extended outlook: Flash flood risk areas and the 10-day forecast
Flood risk graphics from Storm Tracker 2 indicate that, as of Thursday, the highest risk area is in Louisiana and does not yet include Southeast Texas. By Friday, that risk area grows to cover Houston as well, which would mean locally heavy rain could become an issue in some locations with pockets of heavy rain.
Regardless of whether the Houston area gets much rain or not, it appears Louisiana definitely will and Flood Watches have been issued for multiple parishes of the state. Widespread 3-6 inches of rain is forecasted for parts of Louisiana with isolated totals of 6-10 inches possible.
Tracking uncertainty: Stay weather aware
KPRC 2’s meteorologists emphasize that there’s still a lot that could change with this system due to its current disorganization and how close it is to land. With so much up in the air, take the projected path with a grain of salt and check Click2Houston or Storm Tracker 2 for the latest updates as the situation evolves.
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