Tracking Rain Thursday, severe weather threat Sunday and snow possibilities in Houston next week

Thursday’s Forecast:

HOUSTON – Thursday’s looking like one of those cool, gray days where you’ll want to keep an eye on our weather app. Expect some light rain showers, mainly along and south of I-10 in the afternoon. Nothing too heavy, but enough to be a bit of a nuisance if you’ve got outdoor plans. High temperatures climb to 62°.

Cool and quiet Friday and Saturday:

We’ve got some pleasant weather sticking around through Saturday, a perfect way to wrap up the holiday week. Whether you’re getting outside or just relaxing, it’s shaping up to be a lovely few days.

Severe weather threat Sunday afternoon:

After last week’s tornado outbreak, we’re now tracking another severe weather threat. While this system isn’t as intense, lacking the same level of instability and wind shear. It still carries enough energy to produce severe weather. The main threat is northeast of Houston, with most of Harris County not included. Cities in the risk zone include Huntsville, Conroe, Livingston and Liberty.

Will there be snow Wednesday and Thursday?

Getting snow in Houston is no small feat, it requires everything in the atmosphere to line up just right. Temperatures need to be at or near freezing, and low-pressure must be perfectly positioned to generate precipitation.

Looking at the current weather pattern, we’ll be close. Areas south of I-10 may not get cold enough, so the chance of snow there remains incredibly small for now. North of I-10, however, there’s a chance. One key challenge will be the timing of the precipitation. Morning temperatures will hover around freezing, but by the afternoon, they’ll climb into the upper 30s and 40s.

It’s still too early to pinpoint exactly when the precipitation will fall. The latest model data shows some differences:

• The American model suggests snow north of I-10 and rain to the south.
• The European model leans toward a mix of rain and snow along I-10, with snow farther north.

We’ll keep monitoring the trends and updating this forecast as we get closer to Wednesday, the 8th. Stay tuned for more details.

10-day Forecast:

I know there’s been a lot of talk about an arctic air outbreak but there is no data support for this. We will get cold, in fact we could have several mornings at or near freezing starting Tuesday. Our warmest day in the forecast is Sunday reaching the mid-70s.