Houston – NOAA's winter outlook for temperature and rain is in and for Texas, especially Houston and Southeast Texas, the basic message is "What We've Had is What We Get"!
The December – February forecast calls for above-normal temperatures in the coming winter, which shouldn't surprise anyone as we've had our warmest last few months on record. In fact, during September 28 temperature records were set across Bush, Hobby and Galveston! So a warmer than normal winter forecast is almost expected, but what is really surprising is that for the entire country there is NO below-average temperature area on the map! The whole country is either at equal chances or above average for a warm winter!
Certainly we can have a cold snap (like when it dropped to 19 degrees in January two years ago), but for the most part, keep a short sleeve shirt handy!
Had it not been for Tropical Storm Imelda, we'd have ended September extremely dry in Harris County, as did our western counties. The most current US Drought monitor has those areas under abnormally dry to moderate to severe drought conditions:
As we move toward winter, the forecast is for our below-average precipitation pattern to continue here in Southeast Texas.
With no El Nino present, which often brings in Pacific moisture across Mexico to Texas, this forecast also isn't a shock. So as we enjoy a comfortable and dry weather this weekend, it looks like we might get quite a dose of it this winter.