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Frank's Weather or Not: Wednesday Rain and a Hurricane Forecast

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HOUSTON – UPDATED TUESDAY MORNING: Our next front arrives Tomorrow, right in the middle of Spring Break! Right now, as have the past few systems, this one looks to keep the severe weather to our north and west. Here's the current FV3-GFS model run for Wednesday morning, afternoon and evening. You'll notice the bright colors over North Texas and Oklahoma:

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Wednesday Evening
Wednesday Evening

As far as "convective" activity, meaning strong thunderstorms, we are only in a 1 out of 5 risk:

Marginal Risk for Houston
Marginal Risk for Houston

And total rain amounts from this event don't look higher than 1" for us:

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We'll keep you posted, of course, but other than a messy mid-week, we should be in fairly good shape.

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And, if Dale Link's hurricane forecast verifies, Texas will be in good shape this hurricane season. Before you see the graphic he sent me, here are his own words regarding accuracy (especially lately): 

Just to let you know:  From 2000–2015 (16yrs.), I was 91% accurate (hurricanes landing inside zones), and from 2016–2018 (3 yrs.), 43 %; therefore, from 2000–2018 (19yrs.), 69% (76% if no mistakes), just not good enough.  Seems like the weather has gone haywire the last three years, so I've decided to hold off indefinitely on publishing my methodology.

That understood, here is his graphic forecast and the only region he is predicting a landfalling hurricane for the entire USA is from Louisiana to Florida:

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You can read much more about Dale Link's tropical forecasts here and be aware that one of the caveats of what he does is that he will not share his methodology with the scientific community. So he predicts what he predicts but I have no idea where it's coming from! I'll keep posting hurricane forecasts as they come in over the next couple of months and, of course, we will be updating this:

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Let's hope Dale is right and we don't need it this year! But just in case......

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Two personal notes: a big thanks to KPRC's Haley Hernandez for her story about the latest update to my cancer journey. The story ran last Friday evening and you can see it here if you are interested! I didn't catch it until today because we were enjoying a memorable and fun wedding at Dripping Springs' Ma Maison where the grooms served warm chocolate chip cookies in lieu of cake! A first! Congrats Shawn and Mike!

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Have a wonderful Spring Break week, even if it springs a few leaks!

Frank

 


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