WASHINGTON — House Democrats’ top super PAC is reserving more than $22 million for ad buys aimed at five congressional seats — a massive uptick from 2024 and a sign the party sees pickup opportunities in the state even after the GOP’s mid-decade redistricting.
House Majority PAC’s eight-figure spending is aimed at holding two vulnerable Democratic districts in South Texas — held by Reps. Henry Cuellar of Laredo and Vicente Gonzalez of McAllen — and winning three seats that Republicans already hold or are favored to win after redistricting. All five districts are majority-Hispanic, signaling Democrats’ confidence in polls that show Hispanic support for the GOP is eroding after Republicans made major gains two years ago in the Rio Grande Valley and other border communities.
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The three GOP seats on House Majority PAC’s target list are Edinburg Rep. Monica De La Cruz’s 15th Congressional District; the 23rd Congressional District, previously held by former San Antonio Rep. Tony Gonzales; and the newly drawn 35th Congressional District in San Antonio and surrounding counties.
In 2024, the PAC’s initial ad reservation list for Texas was under $3 million, a small fraction of the $22.2 million it plans to pour into the Lone Star State this fall. Of that total, $4.8 million is earmarked for Spanish-language programming.
“HMP’s historic television and digital ad reservations reflect that Democrats are firmly on offense heading into November,” HMP President Mike Smith said in a statement. “While Democrats are expanding the map nationwide, House Republicans are losing ground after failing to lower costs, making health care more expensive, and dragging us into another costly and unpopular foreign war. Democrats will take back the House in November, and elect Hakeem Jeffries as the next Speaker.”
The ad reservations are an initial marker of HMP’s spending priorities, and can be increased or canceled at a later date if Democrats shift their House strategy.
House Majority PAC is reserving ads in four media markets, including San Antonio, which includes parts of the 15th, 23rd and 35th Congressional Districts. The PAC’s targeting of the 23rd District is especially notable: Gonzales won reelection in 2024 by a 24-point margin, and HMP has not spent money on the district since 2020, when it was a swing seat before being made safer for Republicans during the 2021 round of redistricting.
Gonzales dropped his reelection bid in March in the wake of a sex scandal with an employee, and ultimately resigned from Congress last week. The now-open race is between GOP nominee Brandon Herrera, a gun rights activist and Youtuber who is far more conservative than the moderate Gonzales, and Democratic newcomer Katy Padilla Stout.
A March poll commissioned by HMP found Herrera leading by just 2 percentage points, giving Democrats optimism even as Republicans have maintained that the district is deep red and Herrera has outraised Padilla Stout. HMP’s initial commitment to the seat, which stretches from San Antonio through West Texas along the border, is a sign of Democrats’ seriousness about a district that has been safely Republican for the past two cycles.
Meanwhile, in targeting the 35th District — currently represented by Austin Democrat Greg Casar but completely reconfigured by Republicans to be a seat President Donald Trump won by 10 points in 2024 — Democrats are underscoring their growing optimism that they can blunt the effectiveness of the new map. The 35th was one of five Democratic-controlled districts that Texas Republicans explicitly targeted in reshaping the state’s political lines.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-New York, has maintained that the map will backfire on Republicans, and predicted the GOP would only win two or three of the five seats they intended to deliver.
In the 35th District, national Democrats have lined up behind Johnny Garcia, a Bexar County Sheriff’s deputy, though he faces a runoff against a more progressive candidate, Maureen Galindo. The Republican primary proceeded to a runoff as well between state Rep. John Lujan, R-San Antonio, and Carlos De La Cruz, the Trump-backed brother of Monica De La Cruz.
HMP is pouring the majority of its Texas funding into the Harlingen media market, where Democrats are defending two seats and looking to pick up the one held by Monica De La Cruz. The market covers the South Texas cities of Brownsville, McAllen and Weslaco, in addition to Harlingen.
Even before redistricting, Democrats were targeting De La Cruz, and have been enthused about Bobby Pulido, a moderate Democrat and Tejano music star running in the district.
De La Cruz won her race by a 14-point margin in 2024; Trump would have won the district, under its new boundaries, by 17 percentage points.
The PAC is also planning to provide ad support to Cuellar and Gonzalez, whose districts were made more red-leaning by legislative Republicans hoping to oust them. House Majority PAC is making initial ad reservations of $682,500 in Laredo, which Cuellar represents, and $2.35 million in Corpus Christi, part of which was drawn into Gonzalez’s district to make his reelection tougher.
Trump won both seats, under their new boundaries, by 10 points in 2024. But Cuellar and Gonzalez are both moderates willing to break with their party, and they have significantly overperformed Democrats at the top of the ticket, holding on in 2024 even as Trump carried each of their districts.
Cuellar is running against Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina, while Gonzalez will face former federal prosecutor Eric Flores.
Congressional Leadership Fund, the Republican leadership-aligned super PAC, has yet to announce its initial ad reservations for the 2026 cycle. But Cuellar and Gonzalez’s seats, as well as the redrawn 35th District, are seen as top pickup opportunities for the party, albeit heavier lifts than usual in a midterm election expected to favor Democrats.
HMP’s ad reservations fulfill a pledge the group made last summer to raise and spend at least $20 million for the Lone Star Fund, created as Republicans pursued Texas redistricting. At the time, HMP said it would recruit and fund campaigns to flip Republican-held seats in newly gerrymandered districts.