Texas could see a rise in electricity demand over the next decade, according to a new preliminary forecast from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas.
But officials say the numbers are likely higher than the demand that will actually materialize in the years ahead.
ERCOT reported that peak energy demand could potentially quadruple by 2032.
However, the grid operator said that the forecast is preliminary and subject to change.
“This forecast is likely higher than expected future load growth,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said in a statement.
Why are the numbers so high
The projection is based on ERCOT economic forecasts and data from utilities working with so-called “large load” customers, projects expected to require more than 75 megawatts of electricity. These include energy-intensive developments such as data centers and cryptocurrency mines.
Texas is expected to become the nation’s No. 1 market for data centers within the next two years, as demand grows alongside large-scale, power-intensive projects.
At the same time, officials say agencies are still working to determine how best to track and account for this rapid growth.
The forecast was filed with the Public Utility Commission of Texas as required by Senate Bill 6 and was presented during a recent PUCT meeting.
Officials agreed the forecast is likely higher than what demand will actually look like, and said they need more accurate projections before using it for long-term planning.
“Every decision that we make really depends on the accuracy of the forecast,” said PUCT Commissioner Courtney K. Hjaltman.
PUCT Chair Thomas Gleeson said regulators need to refine the numbers into something more usable.
ERCOT plans to submit a revised forecast in the near future.
What it could mean for your power bill
Even as the long-term forecast is refined, a University of Houston professor told KPRC 2 that electricity prices are likely to rise in the short term as infrastructure is built to meet growing demand, especially in fast-growing areas like Houston.
“But over the next few years, at least to get the infrastructure up, it is likely that prices will go up,” the professor said.