HOUSTON – Public school districts across the Houston metro area are facing a difficult reality: fewer students are enrolled, and in Texas, fewer students often mean less funding.
A recent analysis from Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy found that some Houston Independent School District campuses are operating well below capacity, highlighting disparities in campus utilization across the district. The report outlines how under-enrolled campuses can strain district finances because state funding is largely tied to student attendance.
Bill King, a research fellow at the Baker Institute, said Houston ISD’s enrollment decline over the past decade has been significant.
“Over the last 10 years… it’s about 70,000 kids or so, 50 to 70… about half was a natural demographic decline and about half was kids transferring someplace else,” King said.
That means roughly half of the enrollment drop can be attributed to demographic trends, while the other half reflects students leaving for other education options.
“There’s more competition for a declining base of students… charter schools have really been picking up most of the slack,” King said.
King described what he called a “demographic storm” affecting urban districts like Houston ISD — a combination of declining birth rates, population shifts and increased education options that did not exist at the same scale a decade ago.
The demographic component is not limited to Houston.
Dr. Ingrid Haynes, associate dean in the College of Education at Texas Southern University, said generational shifts are also playing a role in enrollment declines.
“That generation is just not raising their hand that fast to start a family and have children… that is also a key as to why there’s low enrollment,” Haynes said.
Nationally, U.S. birth rates have declined in recent years, and that trend typically first appears in elementary school enrollment before moving through higher grade levels.
In Texas, state funding follows the student. Districts receive a base level of funding per student in average daily attendance, meaning when enrollment declines, revenue declines as well. When students transfer to charter schools, private schools or homeschooling, the associated state funding leaves the district with them.
The Baker Institute analysis notes that maintaining under-utilized campuses can create financial strain, particularly when districts must still cover operational and maintenance costs for aging buildings.
District leaders across the region have said school closures or consolidations are aimed at aligning building capacity with current enrollment levels.
For districts in Houston and beyond, the challenge now is balancing demographic realities, parental choice and financial sustainability — while ensuring students continue to receive quality instruction.