HOUSTON – Monday in Houston is the College Football Playoff National Championship. Unfortunately, it is also the day our next storm system arrives and with that system comes the potential for severe weather.
While it is still too soon to dive too deep into the specifics of the threat, there are signs that the Houston area could see a severe weather threat on Monday.
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Here is what we know so far.
MONDAY’S RISK
Right now, the Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk outlined from the middle Texas coast all the way to the Florida panhandle. This is the area where forecasters are seeing signs of the potential for severe weather. This is also a very large risk area so as we get closer, we should be able to nail down which areas have a higher risk of seeing severe storms. That could be our area or it could be in another area in the risk.
Our setup is ahead of an advancing cold front and low pressure system. As is typical of most winter-time setups, there should be plenty of wind shear and lift available in the atmosphere for storms to take advantage of. The one element that is in question, which is also typical for this time of year, is the instability values. Depending on the cloud cover and heating we get, we may have some severe storms, or we may not see much at all. A lot of times, whether we will have enough instability or not can’t be seen until the day of the actual weather event.
There are also questions as to how far inland the threat goes. Right now, forecasters believe the threat could be more confined to coastal counties. The National Weather Service said storms, including some supercells, could stream off the Gulf of Mexico into coastal areas. The question is how far north can an unstable environment go before being cut off by the front. All of this is subject to change so check back for more details as we get closer.
Any storms that can get going on Monday would have to be watched for the potential for damaging winds and tornadoes. The National Weather Service also mentioned the potential for a few of those tornadoes to be on the stronger side. As said earlier, it is too soon to nail down individual threat levels and where the best chances of seeing them may be.
BOTTOM LINE
- There is the potential for severe weather on Monday. Some storms would have the potential to produce damaging winds and tornadoes.
- Questions exist as to how far inland the threat will be. The National Weather Service has a slight risk outlined for coastal areas from the Houston metro south.
- It is too soon to nail down individual threats or go too in-depth on the likelihood of those threats in the Houston area. As we get closer to the event, those details should become more clear.