HOUSTON – The Congressional race for District 7 is one of the most closely watched and most competitive races in the country right now. Republican incumbent John Culberson has held the seat for almost two decades.
A recent New York Times Upshot Poll shows Culberson with a narrow three-point lead over Democratic challenger Lizzie Fletcher. District 7 is one of the most economically and ethnically diverse areas of Houston.
Rice University Political Science Professor Mark Jones says it is highly favorable to Republicans.
“Fletcher is going to have to do a job of convincing somewhere between 10 to 15 percent of the electorate who votes for Greg Abbott to vote for her. That's a pretty tough task. It's not impossible, though,” Jones said.
Jones said it is also a district where President Donald Trump is very unpopular and lost to Hillary Clinton in 2016. If the race for District 7 between Culberson and Fletcher is as tight as the poll says it is, he said there are two groups of voters who could tip the race either way. One being white millennials."
Historically, Anglo millennials don’t turn out much in midterm elections. Their turn out rate in this district is about 15 to 20 percent ... pretty low,” Jones said.
College educated Republican women between 40 and 60 years old are also proving to be a key group of voters in this particular race.
“Those women are often very uncomfortable with Donald Trump as well as with some Republicans, so it's going to be a real burden on Culberson to try to keep them in the Republican camp,” Jones said.