The first major hurricane outlook of the season is here.
Researchers at Colorado State University released their 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast this morning, something they do every year ahead of the June 1 start of the season. And historically, CSU has a strong track record when it comes to getting the overall activity level right.
The numbers
CSU is forecasting:
- 13 named storms
- 6 hurricanes
- 2 major hurricanes
For context, an average Atlantic season produces:
- 14 named storms
- 7 hurricanes
- 3 major hurricanes
So this year is shaping up to be slightly below average overall.
Why this season looks the way it does
Two big factors are driving this forecast: warm sea-surface temperatures and a developing El Niño. Warmer water typically supports a more active season, but El Niño usually suppresses tropical activity. That tug-of-war is why this season is expected to land around average (or slightly below) instead of extremely active.
Warm sea-surface temperatures:
Right now, ocean temperatures across the Gulf and Atlantic are running above average.
That matters because:
- Warm water is fuel for hurricanes
- It helps storms develop faster and strengthen more easily
Potential El Niño influence
At the same time, we’re watching the potential development of El Niño later in the season.
El Niño tends to:
- Increase wind shear over the Atlantic
- Disrupt storm organization
- Make it harder for hurricanes to strengthen and form
What matters most for Houston
Even if the season ends up quiet overall… that does not mean Houston is in the clear.
A perfect example is the 1983 Atlantic hurricane season. That year, we saw only 4 named storms all season, making it the least active season of the satellite era (since 1966). That year, there was only one major hurricane, but that hurricane was Hurricane Alicia
Hurricane Alicia made landfall near Galveston as a Category 3 hurricane that caused billions of dollars in damage across SE Texas and left hundreds of thousands without power.
So forecasts like this are great for understanding the big picture, but they only tell you how busy the entire Atlantic basin might be. They don’t tell you where storms will go. And for Houston, history is clear: it only takes one storm.