HOUSTON – NOAA will release its official 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook Thursday at 9 a.m., giving us our first real look at what to expect for the months ahead.
Climatologically, an average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
This year, the early signals suggest we could land near average — or even slightly below average in total storm numbers.
Sea surface temperatures across the Gulf and Atlantic are expected to run warmer than average, which typically supports storm development and intensification.
But at the same time, there is a growing signal for El Niño development later this summer into peak season. El Niño tends to increase wind shear across the Caribbean and Gulf, which can disrupt storm organization and limit how many systems are able to strengthen.
So, we’re balancing two competing factors:
- Warm water that fuels storms
- Wind shear that can tear them apart
The result is a season that may not be hyperactive in terms of numbers — but as always, it only takes one storm to make a big impact.
We’ll be watching Thursday’s outlook closely and breaking down what it means specifically for the Gulf Coast and Southeast Texas.