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Who will nail the spring forecast: The Farmer’s Almanac or the Climate Prediction Center

Houston’s Spring Outlook

Farmer's Almanac vs NOAA's Climate Prediction Center

Spring is already making a statement in southeast Texas. Houston just wrapped up a notably warm first week of the season, and a look back at March temperatures shows the trend has been consistent: most days this month have come in above average.

One standout moment arrived on the second day of spring. On March 21, Houston reached 87 degrees, tying the daily record—an early-season reminder that spring in Texas can feel a lot like summer.

First day of Spring landed on March 20th

With that warm start, the next question is obvious: what does the rest of spring look like? To get a sense of what may be ahead, I compared two well-known sources for seasonal outlooks: the Old Farmers’ Almanac and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC).

Where they agree: warmer-than-normal temperatures

In the temperature category, the two forecasts line up. Both the Farmers’ Almanac and the CPC are calling for a warmer-than-normal spring across the southern United States, which includes Texas. Given what we’ve already seen so far this month, that portion of the outlook doesn’t feel like a stretch.

Above average warmth

Where they split: rainfall expectations

The disagreement comes when we shift to rainfall.

  • Farmers’ Almanac is forecasting a wetter-than-normal spring, including the potential for late-season storms.
Wet and warm for Texas
  • The Climate Prediction Center, however, says there are no strong indicators pointing toward either a particularly wet or particularly dry spring.
Neither above or below average

So who will be right?

The Farmer’s Almanac is known for the tradition and nostalgia. However, It is important to note the outlook for 2026’s Farmer’s Almanac is put together by a team of meteorologists but this wasn’t always the case.

The Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal outlooks are data driven.

However, this is the kind of forecast showdown that only time can settle.