HOUSTON – KPRC 2’s weather team is tracking a severe weather threat across parts of Southeast Texas.
For the areas generally north of the Houston Metro and east of Caldwell, we’re tracking a 2 out of 5 slight risk, while the areas in green are at a marginal risk, 1 out of 5 for the rest of SE Texas.
What these levels actually mean and what’s the difference?
It’s a question a lot of people ask us! Especially as families try to make plans for spring break and the Houston rodeo.
According to NOAA and NWS:
So what does that mean for you on Wednesday?
Marginal Risk 1 out of 5: Green
An area of severe storms of either limited organization and longevity, or very low coverage and marginal intensity.
In plain terms: Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, but they’re typically short-lived, disorganized, spotty in coverage, and lower overall intensity.
Slight Risk 2 out of 5: Yellow
An area of organized severe storms, which is not widespread in coverage with varying levels of intensity.
In plain terms: Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible (more than just isolated), with better organization and structure — meaning storms are more dependable to produce severe weather where they form, though still not widespread or outbreak-level
So, what’s the difference between a slight and marginal weather severe weather threat for Wednesday?
The green (Marginal): Areas indicate isolated, iffy potential: severe weather could happen in a few spots, but most storms will likely remain disorganized and spotty.
The yellow (Slight): Areas have a more organized and reliable setup: scattered storms with better structure, increasing the odds of seeing damaging winds, large hail, or even a tornado or two in those zones.
However, neither is a “major outbreak” scenario (that would be a 4 or 5/High risk).
Tracking for Wednesday’s severe weather threat:
Damaging winds, hail and tornado risks: The areas you see in yellow, are on the higher end of the percentage while areas in brown, are on the lower end.
Damaging wind probability: 5-15%
Large hail probability: 5%
Tornado probability: 2-5%
The areas you see in brown are on the higher end of the percentage while areas in green are on the lower end.