HOUSTON – Listen up — we’re talking hurricane season for the Gulf Coast.
A big player is ENSO, or the natural warming and cooling of the tropical pacific ocean that helps steer global weather patterns.
The Climate Prediction Center just updated its ENSO outlook, and surprisingly, La Niña conditions have actually strengthened.
Because of that, we’re likely to stay in ENSO-neutral through August — which suggests a fairly average start to the tropical season.
Now here’s the encouraging part: there’s about a 60% chance we transition into El Niño by September — the climatological peak of hurricane season.
When El Niño develops, it increases upper-level wind shear across the Caribbean and Gulf. That makes it harder for storms to organize and rapidly intensify.
It does not mean zero storms — but historically, activity tends to be lower than average during El Niño years.
So if that transition happens on schedule, it could reduce the odds of stronger systems developing in the second half of the season — including those that threaten Texas.