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Today’s Rain Chances:
Rain showers are possible throughout the day today. We are not expecting any flood threats, or severe threats. These showers are ahead of a cold front on Wednesday evening.
Forecasted rainfall accumulation on Wednesday will be highest at the coast, with forecast totals only reaching about half an inch.
Weekend Cold Front:
The cold front arrives Friday with the arctic air moving in sometime Saturday. The temperatures tumble from highs in the 70s on Friday to highs in the lower-40s, and even upper 30s by Sunday. Morning lows drop into the 20s and 30s. These will be the coldest temperatures we’ve seen so far this season.
I am tracking an impactful winter weather situation this weekend in Houston, with freezing rain possible in the area. Freezing rain is the most dangerous form of winter precipitation. Even a thin layer of ice, less than a tenth of an inch, can create hazardous driving conditions and lead to power outages if it collects on trees near power lines.
But timing is key! The freezing air, less than 32°, and precipitation have to match up. If it doesn’t, we’ll simply get a cold rain. The timing for now is Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Below in pink is the freezing rain forecast.
The freeze line below in green separates the below freezing temperatures and above. This line simply needs to be a little farther south and if that happens, watch out Houston, we’ve got problems. On top of this, wind chills will be in the teens, so it will feel bitterly cold.
Right now, the most serious threat—as I write this, though it could change—is the hard freeze. What makes this one different from recent freezes is that we really need to prioritize protecting our pipes. It’s one of the most common questions our weather team gets ahead of hard freezes, and it sets the tone: preparation matters.
Your Extended Forecast:
Confidence is high that we will see a strong arctic front this weekend. This front will bring the coldest air mass so far this winter. There is a very slight chance of frozen precipitation, especially north of Houston.
This forecast will become much more specific as we get closer to the weekend and models come into better alignment.