What we’ve experienced in Houston over the past two months has been remarkable. December brought six record high temperatures, and January has already added four more, three of them on consecutive days.
We could extend that streak to four in a row if temperatures reach 80° on Friday, before a cold front moves through.
If you’ve watched me for any length of time, you know I try to give you more than just the numbers in the forecast. I believe it’s just as important to explain the why behind the weather we experience.
Over the past couple of months, I’ve talked frequently about the upper-level area of high pressure near Mexico that has helped drive our temperatures higher. I’ve also shown you the persistent low-level winds out of the south and southwest, which efficiently transport warmer air into Southeast Texas.
That said, I’ve received a few thoughtful comments from viewers offering their own perspectives on this unusually warm winter. Mary Fellman asked, “I wonder if it has any correlation to Houston spreading out now with buildings and more buildings and homes and more homes, for hundreds of miles? Builders cutting down all our forested areas and covering all the farmland with cement? And people driving cars, trucks, SUVs, etc. for those extra hundreds of miles back and forth to get from place to place?”
I would say Mary is on to something if these record-setting temperatures were isolated to Houston. But check this out.
- During the 2020s, nearly 88% of U.S. cities, 217 out of 247, have set more record highs than record lows. From January 2020 through November 26, 2024, those same 217 locations recorded more heat records than cold records. (2025 hasn’t been calculated yet. But here is how warm Houston was last year.)
- Over the same period (2020-2024), 21 locations across the U.S. only set records for heat (none for cold). Tampa had the most (setting 114 heat records and no cold records), followed by Phoenix (110 heat records), Miami (102 heat records), San Juan (84 heat records), and Reno (68 heat records).
- And these heat records aren’t limited to summer. As overall temperatures continue to trend warmer, records are being set in every season, including during what should be the colder months. That’s exactly what we’re seeing in Houston this winter.
What really stands out in the graphic above is how dominant record-high temperatures have become since the year 2000. Record lows have been few and far between, a clear shift from what we saw in previous decades. Here are the specific numbers for Houston:
- 90s: 140 records set | 67% record highs/33% record cold
- 00s: 92 records set | 85% highs/15% lows
- 10s: 101 records set | 89% highs/11% lows
- 20s (so far): 101 records set | 97% highs/only 3% lows
If you’d like to see the data on other cities, click here.
That tells us this isn’t just about a persistent area of high pressure or favorable wind patterns. Those are important, but they’re only part of the story. We’re also living in a warmer world.
This is a video I put together back in 2017 that illustrates the long-term relationship between carbon dioxide levels and global temperatures. It provides some important context for what we’re seeing today and why these records are becoming more common.
This video helps explain why the world is warming, and the Gulf of Mexico is a clear example of that trend. The graphic below, from Climate Central, shows just how pronounced this warming has become. So far in 2026, the Gulf is running warmer than it has at any point since 1982. That’s as far back as we can reliably measure, since satellite observations capable of capturing temperatures across the entire Gulf didn’t exist before then.
When water temperatures are this warm, any wind coming in from the south will naturally bring warmer air into Houston. That alone raises our temperatures, but it also introduces another concern: severe weather.
When extremely warm, humid air mixes with colder, drier air, the atmosphere can become primed for significant severe weather outbreaks. We saw that setup play out on Thursday with our first tornadoes of the year. A similar pattern could develop again on Friday, especially near the boundary where these two air masses meet. And Houston is a part of this area.
While individual weather patterns like high pressure and wind direction help explain how we get these warm days, they don’t fully explain why record warmth is becoming so common. The bigger picture shows a steadily warming world, with fewer record cold temperatures and more record heat year-round, including in winter.
A warmer Gulf adds fuel to the system, raising temperatures onshore and increasing the potential for impactful weather when air masses collide. All of this means what we’re experiencing in Houston isn’t an outlier; it’s part of a broader shift that’s shaping our weather now and into the future.