Fall is starting with some excitement in the Houston area, but Tuesday will still feel somewhat like summer.
This Afternoon’s Forecast:
Although it is the first full day of Fall, temperatures warm to the 90s, and we will be humid with afternoon thunderstorm chances. There is a very heavy pull of moisture coming in from the Gulf so if you don’t see any rain, it will still feel VERY sticky for most of the afternoon.
Track the radar here:
The timeline begins as the front approaches North Texas by Tuesday afternoon. Early periods may bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to Southeast Texas.
Cold front timing:
Brazos Valley/Northern Counties: 11 a.m. - 2 p.m.
We’ll start to see a line of broken storms as the front pulls away from the I-20 corridor, and enter the northern counties and the Brazos Valley around lunchtime.
Houston Metro: 2 p.m. - 6 p.m.
This is where the forecast may get a little tricky. The leading edge of the front is expected to hit the Houston metro around 3 p.m. to 4 p.m. This could also be the time that the sea breeze storms that will be pulled in ahead of the front arrive at the same time.
If that’s the case, we could see a potential of storms slamming into one another across Houston. That could cause them to slow down, which would lead to the potential for some heavy downpours and isolated street flooding.
While the threat is low, it is still there. Rainfall totals appear to be ranging from 1-2 inches but those numbers could go higher if storms are blocked from moving.
Coastal counties: Wednesday evening:
The front should start to pick up speed as it approaches the coast. Storms could be packing 30-40 mph wind gusts and heavy rain as it moves down to the coast by midnight or 1 a.m. Thursday. Once the front is offshore, we’ll see some slightly cooler air and drier forecast for Friday and the weekend!
How quickly the front moves will be a big factor. If it speeds up and clears the region quickly, the risk of flooding drops. But should it slow down, as sometimes happens this time of year, the street flooding threat increases.
Here’s the caveat though: This system is expected to bring the threat of severe weather, including potential wind damage and possible street flooding.
Nicer weather coming!
The benefit will be that the humidity levels will be significantly lower by Friday, leading to a pleasant feeling weekend overall.
Tropical outlook:
Powerful Hurricane Gabrielle is still expected to slide east of Bermuda and out into the north Atlantic. The storm brought some likely storm damage to the island of Bermuda but that will be the only interaction with land as it heads back out into the north Atlantic.
There are two tropical waves in the Atlantic stirring up thunderstorms that will likely become at least one of our next named storms.
Make sure your family is prepared for whatever comes our way this hurricane season. You can check out our 2025 Hurricane and Flood Survival Guide here.
Your extended forecast:
The cool front Wednesday night lowers temperatures into the 80s Thursday and Friday. Mornings fall to the upper 60s Friday and Saturday. It will feel great with lower humidity those two days. The humidity starts to climb next weekend.
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