The American and European models have been going back and forth the past few days as to whether we’d have a wet or dry Thanksgiving, and while they are now both on-board for wet weather Thursday, they still differ as to the weekend! Here’s the synoptic set up, which is to say, where the incoming cold front will be Thursday morning and Friday morning, and you will see that it’s a pretty fast mover!
This indicates the front moves across Southeast Texas Thursday night. As this front comes through, the American model depicts the potential for severe weather, especially Thursday evening:
And the American model continues to keep rain in our forecast Friday and much of Saturday as another coastal low pressure system forms:
The European, on the other hand, prints out Thursday rain although not severe, and moves it through for the rest of the holiday weekend:
Regardless, Thursday itself looks wet. People always ask me which model is better -- the European versus the American. In this case, the American has been rain-consistent since last week while the Euro continued back and forth from dry to wet. I’ll be interested to see which does better with our Friday to Sunday forecast. American: Wet. Euro: Dry.