Yellow, orange and red hatched areas like the one above always get our attention and this one showed up just yesterday on the National Hurricane Center’s five-day graphical forecast. Nothing is expected the next two days down there in the Caribbean, but perhaps by day five we’ll see a tropical low spin up and head into Central America. The American Model doesn’t seem too interested other than to show a low popping up for a quick moment over Honduras:
The water down in the Caribbean and, likewise, the Gulf is plenty warm to support a tropical system. But the upper level winds are not conducive for development EXCEPT right where that hatch is located. Here’s the current wind shear map and what to notice is a lot of RED lines -- unfavorable for development. However, they do lighten up way down near Central America -- you’ll see the green and yellow lines there.
The low would have a much better chance developing if it wandered across Central America maintaining a circulation and then landed in the Pacific. That might bring it back to life with little shear to tear it up.
Bottom line for the tropics this week: don’t fret!