The tropics this week

NHC 5 Day Forecast Graphic
NHC 5 Day Forecast Graphic

Yellow, orange and red hatched areas like the one above always get our attention and this one showed up just yesterday on the National Hurricane Center’s five-day graphical forecast. Nothing is expected the next two days down there in the Caribbean, but perhaps by day five we’ll see a tropical low spin up and head into Central America. The American Model doesn’t seem too interested other than to show a low popping up for a quick moment over Honduras:

American model through the end of the week shows weak development of a low in Central America

The water down in the Caribbean and, likewise, the Gulf is plenty warm to support a tropical system. But the upper level winds are not conducive for development EXCEPT right where that hatch is located. Here’s the current wind shear map and what to notice is a lot of RED lines -- unfavorable for development. However, they do lighten up way down near Central America -- you’ll see the green and yellow lines there.

Lots of Wind Shear Right Now

The low would have a much better chance developing if it wandered across Central America maintaining a circulation and then landed in the Pacific. That might bring it back to life with little shear to tear it up.

Bottom line for the tropics this week: don’t fret!


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About the Authors:

KPRC 2's chief meteorologist with three decades of experience forecasting Houston's weather.

Amanda Cochran is an Edward R. Murrow award-winning journalist. She specializes in Texas features, social media news and local crime.