74ºF

So, are we done with hurricanes now?

No Tropical Activity in the Atlantic Basin today
No Tropical Activity in the Atlantic Basin today

That’s a nice cover shot of a quiet Atlantic basin! So is it over for us? Never say never, but I can tell you that the odds seem to be in our favor that we won’t be getting a hurricane on the Texas coast the rest of the season. Two things are working for us: statistics and a cold front.

First, we have to get next week’s cold front in here, which really looks like a sure thing, and that cools us down wonderfully September 30th into October 1st and the following weekend. Here’s the map for next Wednesday:

Front next Tuesday/Wednesday
Front next Tuesday/Wednesday

Our forecast for right now has us in the 70s for highs and 60s for lows (even 50s?!) mid to late next week:

Look at those temps!
Look at those temps!

This would be a nice beginning to Ahhh-ctober! And when those fronts start moving in, that wind flow off the Rockies keeps storms from moving our way.

What about statistics?

Let’s face it. We’re in 2020 and no one seems too confident about anything. But historically, we’ve only had two hurricanes hit the Texas coast in the month of October, at least on record. The first was October 16, 1912, when an unnamed hurricane formed south of Cuba and tracked to Padre Island as a 100-mph Category 2. Here’s the path:

October 16, 1912 hurricane
October 16, 1912 hurricane

More recently, 85-mph Hurricane Jerry skated right along our SE Texas coast in mid-October 1989:

Hurricane Jerry courtesy NOAA
Hurricane Jerry courtesy NOAA
Jerry's Path
Jerry's Path

So my reasoning is pretty simple: nothing shows up in the models the next ten days and our first fall front makes it in to cool things down. But that doesn’t get us to the middle of October, does it? Stay weather aware and let’s hope for the best!

Frank

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