That’s a nice cover shot of a quiet Atlantic basin! So is it over for us? Never say never, but I can tell you that the odds seem to be in our favor that we won’t be getting a hurricane on the Texas coast the rest of the season. Two things are working for us: statistics and a cold front.
First, we have to get next week’s cold front in here, which really looks like a sure thing, and that cools us down wonderfully September 30th into October 1st and the following weekend. Here’s the map for next Wednesday:
Our forecast for right now has us in the 70s for highs and 60s for lows (even 50s?!) mid to late next week:
This would be a nice beginning to Ahhh-ctober! And when those fronts start moving in, that wind flow off the Rockies keeps storms from moving our way.
What about statistics?
Let’s face it. We’re in 2020 and no one seems too confident about anything. But historically, we’ve only had two hurricanes hit the Texas coast in the month of October, at least on record. The first was October 16, 1912, when an unnamed hurricane formed south of Cuba and tracked to Padre Island as a 100-mph Category 2. Here’s the path: