HOUSTON – There has been much talk recently among my friends about the hurricane season being over. They state we rarely if ever have hurricanes after the third week of September.
While not as common place as July through mid-September events, there have been significant events past the peak of our season in Southeast Texas.
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There have been seven hurricanes or tropical storms that have impacted Texas the last week in September through mid-October since record-keeping began in 1851. Four of them were on the upper Texas coast. Most powerful were the 1886 hurricane in Beaumont with 120 mph winds causing 150 deaths, and the 1949 hurricane west of Freeport with 110 mph winds, causing two deaths and considerable damage in the Houston area.
The most recent Texas October hurricane was Hurricane Jerry in 1989, making landfall on Galveston Island on Oct. 16, the latest known landfall on the Texas coast. Jerry was tiny, with only a 20-mile wide area of hurricane-force winds, yet three people lost their lives from this storm and damage on the beachfront from the wind was considerable.
Now, about low odds and impact. There have only been four landfall tropical storms or hurricanes in Texas prior to mid-June. The last early June landfall was Tropical Storm Allison, which devastated Southeast Texas from June 5-9, 2001. It was quite unexpected and many of my same friends said (and still say) "hurricane season doesn't really start until August."
Forecasting the formation of tropical cyclones more than five days in advance is not skillful. For the next five days, it looks quiet for those of us living on the Gulf Coast. I think I'll keep my hurricane supplies for a few more weeks.