HOUSTON – Exceptional drought conditions still exist to our west, in west Texas and southeast New Mexico, and to our east in parts of Georgia, Florida, South Carolina and Alabama. Within these places, as many as 15 inches of rain is needed to eliminate the drought.
By contrast, in Houston, we are officially out of any drought category thanks to over six months of above-normal rainfall.
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In Houston there is concern about our most recent spell of dry weather. For 12 days now, we have been essentially rain-free. And, for the week ahead, only minimal chances look to be in the forecast. At the core of the issue, meteorologically speaking, is a ridge of high pressure that has become persistent over east Texas and much of the rest of the Gulf Coast region. It acts as a lid on the atmosphere, snuffing out a majority of rain before the rain even has a chance to develop.
This situation is very similar to the weather pattern we experienced last year, which turned out to be one of the worst droughts the region has ever recorded. Last year, high pressure built over Texas and strengthened as the summer season progressed, in what is known as a positive feedback loop. Essentially, the high pressure caused a prolonged period of dry, hot weather which, in turn, strengthened the high pressure system that caused it. The strengthened high pressure ridge continued to keep rain away. It wasn't until fall fronts began to move into the area that the cycle was broken and rain returned to the area.
So, while official long-range forecasts still call for us not to dive back into a drought this summer, the outlook is becoming more unsettling the longer high pressure stays in place and the longer we go without rain. Only time will tell, however, whether we dodge a bullet in 2012 or wind up square in the crosshairs of a drought like we did in 2011.