Fewer than one in 10 Black voters in Texas say they are less likely to vote in November’s midterm elections due to U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett’s defeat in the Democratic primary, according to a poll released Tuesday that suggests James Talarico could face limited electoral fallout from the racial tensions that have persisted since he secured the U.S. Senate nomination.
The survey of 500 Black Texans who voted in recent elections, fielded by Texas Southern University, provides a temperature check of the crucial voter bloc as Talarico continues efforts to coalesce Black Democrats behind his candidacy.
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While numerous Black political leaders have backed Talarico, some elected officials and activists have said he, and the Democratic Party as a whole, have to do more to mobilize voters and listen to their worries. Those calls have fallen largely on Talarico, however, after he defeated Crockett, one of the state’s most prominent Black politicians, in a contentious primary that was fraught with racial issues and saw Black voters overwhelmingly back Crockett.
The poll found that Crockett’s defeat left just 7% of Black Texans less likely to show up in November, while an accompanying TSU survey found that 79% of likely Black voters intend to vote for Talarico, compared to 12% who supported Republican U.S. Senate nominee Ken Paxton, the attorney general.
The findings suggest that many Black voters appear to be sticking with Talarico even as an overwhelming majority — 77% of recent Black voters — said they believe the Democratic Party in Texas takes Black voters “for granted.” Eight in 10 also said they believed Crockett’s race influenced the decision by non-Black primary voters to support Talarico.
Pollsters at TSU’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center conducted both surveys starting July 27. The poll that surveyed a representative sample of the likely statewide electorate was in the field through Thursday and had a +/- 2.8% margin of error, while the one that focused on recent Black voters was conducted through Sunday and had a 4.4% margin of error. Respondents to the latter poll had voted in at least one election since the November 2022 midterms.
In the poll of statewide voters across all demographics, Talarico received 47% to Paxton’s 45%, continuing a stretch of surveys showing the Democrat with narrow leads within the margin of error. Republicans led by single digits in all other statewide races in the survey, with GOP Railroad Commissioner nominee Bo French leading by the narrowest margin at 3 points.
Crockett endorsed Talarico the day after losing the March 3 primary, which came after some polls showed Talarico winning less than 10% of Black voters who were likely to vote in the contest. She has since cast doubt on whether Black voters have unified behind the statewide ticket, skipped the Democrats’ state convention and said she is focusing her efforts on down-ballot races. Crockett’s supporters, meanwhile, have urged Talarico to do more to rein in his supporters who have demanded that the Dallas congresswoman play a more active role in supporting her former rival — tension that has played out largely online.
Talarico recently vowed to invest $25 million in Black voter outreach, announcing the initiative during an event in Houston that was intended to serve as a forum to listen to Black voters’ priorities, and that grew tense at times. At the Texas Democratic Party’s convention in June, he told a room packed for a Black Democratic Caucus meeting that the party had a “troubling history of taking Black voters for granted,” which received emphatic applause.
Among the critics of Talarico’s outreach to Black Texans is state Rep. Jolanda Jones, a Houston Democrat who has accused him of being “unwilling” to reach out to her directly and “have a substantive conversation” about earning the community’s support. Last month, Talarico held a 75-minute Zoom call with Black elected officials, including Jones, according to state Rep. Barbara Gervin-Hawkins, D-San Antonio and chair of the Texas Legislative Black Caucus.
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