The U.S. Supreme Court on Friday struck down most of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on imported goods, but experts said Texans should not expect prices to drop in the short term as questions around the nation’s trade policy remain unanswered.
The court’s ruling does not apply to some tariffs on goods like aluminum, steel and furniture. And Trump promised shortly after the ruling that his administration would use other laws to reimpose many of the tariffs that the Supreme Court deemed illegal, injecting a new round of uncertainty into international trade.
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The ruling applies to roughly $175 billion in import taxes that have been collected over the past year, and Texans should expect to see some relief from rising prices, economists said.
“There will be less upward pressure on prices, so there might be some relief in terms of prices not going down, but at least they aren’t going up like before,” said David Quigley, a professor of economics at the University of Texas at Arlington.
Importers along the Gulf Coast and the Texas-Mexico border have been expecting a ruling from the court, but the order was still sudden and sweeping. Jorge Torres, a licensed customs broker and president of McAllen-based Interlink Trade Services, said he spent much of Friday morning fielding questions from importers who work with his company.
“It’s been emails, calls, and Whatsapp messages nonstop,” Torres said. “‘When can we stop paying the tariffs? When are we going to get refunds?’ I just have to tell them to hang tight.”
The importers have to be patient because the Supreme Court order still leaves much unanswered and comes after a year of sudden and constantly-changing tariffs on countries across the world, each forcing importers and customs brokers alike to recalculate their budgets.
The Supreme Court ruled that Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose those “reciprocal” tariffs was illegal, but the court did not say whether the import taxes paid since April need to be refunded.
A refund of the $175 billion estimated to have been collected by the federal government could provide some relief on prices for consumers, but refunds would likely go directly to importers who have already passed costs down along the supply chain to their U.S. customers, said Ed Hirs, an energy fellow and economics professor at the University of Houston.
As of Friday, Texas importers are still paying the tariffs while they await guidance from Customs and Border Protection, which could come as soon as Monday, Torres said.
“There’s a lot of anxiety and desperation from importers wanting to stop paying the tariffs and get the refund,” Torres said. “By the same token, the administration is not going to cross its hands, and we might get hit from tariffs by other sections … Hopefully things will stabilize but for now we’re still going to see that uncertainty and complexity.”
Trump hinted Friday afternoon that many, if not all of those tariffs would return.
“Other alternatives will now be used to replace the ones that the court incorrectly rejected,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “We have alternatives, great alternatives. Could be more money. We’ll take in more money. and we’ll be a lot stronger for it.”
Speaking Friday at the Economic Club of Dallas, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent laid out more specific alternatives for the president’s tariffs, including a law already in use that allows tariffs on specific products deemed a threat to national security. Trump has used that law, Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, to impose tariffs on steel, aluminum, furniture and automobile parts.
“I always found when I was in the private sector … it was very good to separate signal from noise, and a lot of the noise is that Trump’s tariffs were defeated,” Bessent told the economic club. “The only thing that was defeated is the ability for IEEPA to collect even $1 of revenue.”
Items like couches, kitchen cabinets, canned food and soda will see prices remain elevated due to Section 232 tariffs. Those import taxes on metals will also continue to drive up costs for Texas’ most important industry, oil and gas, where the cost of maintaining and buying new equipment has risen over the past year.
And during his White House press conference, Trump said he would sign an executive order imposing 10% “global tariffs” in response to the court’s ruling.
Lori Mullins, president of the Houston Customs Brokers and Freight Forwarders Association, said she thinks importers are in for a “bumpy ride” in the coming months but are prepared to deal with more uncertainty after the past year.
“(A tariff) is still being touted as … being collected from a foreign country,” Mullins said. “These are American companies, American taxpayers, it is a tax on goods that Americans purchase. Because tariffs are paid by U.S. importers, it’s ultimately going to be felt through the economy.”
Joshua Fechter contributed to this story.
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