State Rep. James Talarico of Austin and U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Dallas are in a dead heat in Texas’ Senate Democratic primary, according to new public polling released Thursday, suggesting the race is up for grabs with less than three weeks until early voting begins.
In a sample of 1,290 likely Democratic primary voters conducted from Jan. 14 to Jan. 21, Crockett led Talarico by one percentage point, 38% to 37%, with 21% of voters undecided. The survey, conducted by Texas Public Opinion Research, a nonpartisan public opinion group, had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
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The two Democrats, who are both seen as rising stars in the party, are competing to take on the eventual Republican nominee in November, when Democrats are hoping voters’ discontent with the Trump administration will help flip a statewide seat blue for the first time in over 30 years. Across the aisle, Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn is trying to fend off primary challenges from Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt of Houston.
Thursday’s poll showed a tighter Democratic race than what recent surveys have found. A public poll conducted by Emerson College from Jan. 10 to Jan. 12 put Talarico ahead of Crockett by 9 points. Shortly after, Crockett published an internal survey that gave her a 13-point edge. A December poll by Texas Southern University, conducted just after Crockett entered the race, had her ahead by 8 points.
“Crockett and Talarico are running neck-and-neck in the Texas Democratic primary for U.S. Senate,” Luke Warford, director of Texas Public Opinion Research, which is neutral in the primary and not employed by either campaign, said in a statement. “Texas Democrats are saying loud and clear that they want a candidate who puts the general election in play by both appealing to Trump voters and energizing the Democratic base.”
According to TPOR’s survey, Crockett led among Black, non-college-educated and middle-aged voters, while Talarico led with white, Latino and college-educated voters — findings that are largely consistent with earlier polls.
Talarico had a 14-point lead among white voters and a 10-point lead among Latino voters, a quarter of whom were undecided — much smaller margins than the Emerson poll reported. Crockett had the support of 75% of Black voters surveyed, with just 12% saying they were undecided.
Younger voters were roughly split between the two, both of whom have large social media presences. Voters between 35 and 64 years old favored Crockett by a slim margin, while Talarico narrowly led among voters 65 and up.
Talarico continued to lag behind Crockett in name recognition, with 27% of likely Democratic primary voters saying they were unfamiliar with him and another 15% saying they knew of him but had no strong opinion. Meanwhile, just 15% of voters surveyed said they had never heard of Crockett, who has become well-known to Democratic voters for her viral moments assailing the Republican Party — and for President Donald Trump’s attacks on her.
Further, the survey found a “visibility gap,” with 35% of voters saying they do not see or hear from Talarico at all, versus 24% saying the same for Crockett. More than half said they had seen or heard from Crockett often in recent weeks.
The poll also asked voters what they saw as the path to victory in November. Eighty-eight percent said it was important for the Democratic nominee to win over voters who went for President Donald Trump. Talarico held a five-point advantage on which candidate voters thought would be most likely to beat a Republican in November. But 42% of voters thought Crockett would be more likely to turn out loyal Democrats, versus 32% for Talarico.
Texas Public Opinion Research also polled the Democratic gubernatorial and attorney general primaries.
In the race to take on Gov. Greg Abbott, state Rep. Gina Hinajosa of Austin led the pack with 29% of voters in her camp. Other candidates, including former U.S. Rep. Chris Bell and rancher and retired firefighter Bobby Cole, garnered just 4% and 3% of support, respectively. Nearly six in ten voters were undecided in the race.
In the primary for attorney general, a whopping 78% of voters were undecided between attorney Tony Box, former Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski and state Sen. Nathan Johnson of Dallas.