Harris County has surpassed 1 million early votes, a milestone that could shape how quickly some races become clear on election night.
The Harris County Clerk’s Office told KPRC 2 at 4:30 p.m. Friday that the early vote total had reached 1,000,447.
Steven David, who analyzes voter turnout data, said participation has been running well ahead of the same point in the 2022 midterm and closer to the pace of the 2024 presidential election.
David said voters have strong motivations to turn out — whether they’re passionate about a candidate’s policies or determined to vote against an opponent.
“Enthusiasm comes in a lot of different ways,” he said.
“Which is a really incredible amount of people to vote in an off year off cycle election,” David said of the anticipated million-vote milestone during an interview earlier Friday.
Why is this turnout significant?
David said the strong participation has included a rush at both the beginning and end of early voting.
“So what that shows me is that there was a surge of early voting at the beginning, and there’s a surge at the end,” he said.
In his analysis, the turnout signals an unusually active electorate for a midterm. But the number of people voting does not reveal which candidates they selected.
David uses voting history, including participation in Democratic or Republican primaries, to assess who is showing up. He cautioned that those patterns require assumptions about voters’ choices.
“But folks like me can go and pull down that data and then make reasonable assumptions,” he said.
Those estimates are not election results. Someone who participated in one party’s primary can choose candidates from either party in the general election.
Could a large early vote mean faster race calls?
David said a large share of votes cast before Election Day could help some races become clear sooner — if the first results show a substantial lead.
He pointed to the voting pattern in 2024.
“If you look at 2024, which this is looking like a presidential year, like that, 75% of the vote came from early voting. Only 25% came from Election Day,” he said. “So if that’s true, if that is the case for next Tuesday, we’ll be able to call a ton of races really quickly.”
David said early in-person votes and processed mail ballot results are expected first Tuesday night, followed by Election Day totals.
What should voters watch for?
David said the groups voting early and on Election Day can make different choices, which means an early lead may not hold.
“Early voting tends to skew for Democrats. Election Day voting tends to skew for Republicans,” he said.
In his analysis, Democrats will be looking for an early advantage large enough to withstand later returns. Republicans who trail will need enough support from the remaining voters to close the gap.
The key questions are how many votes remain and where they are coming from.
“At some point it becomes an insurmountable lead, like there’s no Election Day turnout that could offset the two weeks of early voting,” David said.
But leading is different from winning, and a news organization calling a race is separate from officials completing the checks required to make results official.
Follow HarrisVotes.com for Harris County results and Click2Houston.com for election coverage and explanations as the numbers come in.
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