HOUSTON – Tensions are rising in the Middle East following the attack on Iran, and energy analysts say the fallout could quickly reach Texas drivers’ wallets.
University of Houston energy expert Ramanan Krishnamoorti told KPRC 2 that gasoline prices could rise fast as crude oil reacts to uncertainty overseas.
“Right away, we’re going to see about a 10% increase in gasoline prices at the pump,” Krishnamoorti said.
How soon could prices rise?
Krishnamoorti said drivers may start noticing increases within days — not months — as markets respond and refineries factor higher crude costs into supply.
AAA data from Monday shows the national average is hovering around $3 a gallon, while Houston’s current average is in the mid-$2 range.
Why the Middle East matters to prices in Houston
Krishnamoorti said one reason markets react so quickly is the risk around the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow shipping route that plays an outsized role in global energy supplies.
Reuters reports more than 20 million barrels a day of crude, condensate and fuels move through the Strait of Hormuz.
Even though the U.S. produces large amounts of oil, prices still move as a global commodity — and disruptions or even fears of disruptions can push prices higher quickly.
Not just gas: why groceries can get more expensive too
Krishnamoorti said higher fuel costs don’t stop at the pump — they can raise the cost of transporting goods, which can show up as higher prices at the grocery store.
“You’re going to see commodities like cereal and milk and everything in the grocery store — their price is going to go up too… every time they have to move eggs they have a truck moving and the truck is paying more for diesel,” he said.
“A bump in the road” for drivers — but a boost for oil companies
Krishnamoorti said rising prices can be painful for everyday families, but oil companies and investors can benefit as crude prices climb.
“For the Exxons, the Chevrons, the ConocoPhillips, the Oxys… they will see their profitability increase… you could see significant improvement in your stocks,” he said.
Will METRO or rideshares help save money?
Some drivers may look for alternatives — using METRO, carpooling, or ride shares — but Krishnamoorti warned many of those options still depend on fuel prices.
“Uber and Lyft will also increase their prices… they all rely on a lot of these things,” he said.
How high could gas go if the conflict drags on?
Krishnamoorti said the biggest factor is how long tensions last — and whether oil supply routes face disruptions.
If the conflict is prolonged, he warned pump prices could rise sharply.
“If it’s a four to five-week conflict…$5 a gallon would not be a surprise,” Krishnamoorti said.
What to watch next
Energy analysts say price swings will depend on whether tensions ease quickly — or whether shipping and supply routes in the region face sustained disruption. Recent reporting has warned U.S. gasoline prices could climb further if oil continues rising.