In about a month, federal health officials will decide whether the United States can still be considered a country where measles has been “eliminated.”
The outlook, according to infectious disease experts, is not encouraging.
Dr. Pedro Piedra, an infectious disease specialist at Baylor College of Medicine, says the reality is clear: the U.S. is seeing larger, faster-spreading measles outbreaks than it has in many years.
Central Texas emerged as an epicenter last year, and recently, South Carolina has seen a similar surge.
In a truly “eliminated” environment, measles cases in the U.S. would appear only as small, contained clusters linked to international travel.
Instead, health officials are seeing the virus spread rapidly through communities, a sign that vaccination gaps are widening.
“There is a significant resistance or backlash against being vaccinated. When in all honesty, vaccines are our best measure of protection and vaccines are very safe. That’s why they’ve been approved for many years for children, and so if you truly want to prevent things that we don’t see anymore, measles is just one of them, pertussis, influenza, diphtheria, tetanus, it’s incredible the list of bacteria and viruses that are prevented because of vaccines,” Dr. Piedra explained.
Local vaccination data shows why experts are concerned.
In a report last fall, KPRC 2 highlighted that several nearby counties, including Harris, Montgomery, and Galveston, have already dipped below the 95 percent “herd immunity” threshold for the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine.
Falling below that level makes it easier for the virus to gain a foothold and spread.
Measles is one of the most contagious viruses known.
One sick person can infect about ten others, according to Piedra.
Because of that, vaccination coverage has to remain extremely high, around 95 percent, to protect those who are most vulnerable, especially children under five.
That age group faces the greatest risk of hospitalization and death from measles complications.
Before measles vaccines were available, about 500 people, most of them children, died from the disease every year in the United States.
Health officials warn that if vaccination rates continue to slide and outbreaks expand, the country’s hard-won measles elimination status could soon be a thing of the past.