HOUSTON, Texas – A new statewide poll from the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs shows key leaders emerging in both the Republican and Democratic races for the 2026 U.S. Senate primaries in Texas, just over a week before early voting begins.
Republican Primary Outlook: The survey of likely voters shows Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton with a lead, earning support from 38% of likely GOP primary voters, while incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn trails with 31%. U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt is in third with 17%, and about 12% remain undecided.
Because no candidate currently has a majority, the race could head to a runoff election, likely in May, if no one reaches the required 50% threshold on March 3.
In hypothetical runoff matchups, the poll found Paxton leading Cornyn and Hunt, while Cornyn would edge out Hunt in a head-to-head contest.
Democratic Primary OutlookOn the Democratic side, U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett leads the field with 47% support, compared to 39% for state Rep. James Talarico. Around 12% of likely Democratic voters are undecided in that race.
The survey reflects shifting dynamics in both primary contests as candidates vie for momentum heading into early voting, which begins Feb. 17 and leads up to the March 3 primary election.
About the Poll: The Hobby School surveyed more than 1,500 likely voters statewide between Jan. 20–31, 2026, with separate samples of Republican and Democratic primary voters.