Houston ISD has lost more than 13,000 students since the state took over the district in 2023, according to a new report from the University of Houston which found enrollment declines accelerated after the intervention.
The analysis, conducted by UH researchers using data from the university’s Education Research Center, also shows significant changes to the district’s teaching workforce, including higher turnover and a sharp drop in experienced educators.
“The overarching takeaway is that the student and teacher populations in Houston ISD are very different than they were before the takeover,” said Toni Templeton, senior research scientist at UH’s Institute for Education Policy Research and Evaluation. “We are continuing to investigate the degree to which long-term, lasting improvement can be attained with a declining student population and an increasingly inexperienced and uncertified teacher workforce.”
The report finds enrollment losses accelerated following the 2022–23 school year. By 2024–25, the district was serving more than 13,000 fewer students than two years earlier, with losses increasing each year.
Students leaving HISD are largely transferring to neighboring districts and charter schools or exiting Texas public education altogether.
“Notably, all of this is happening in a choice context that does not yet include additional competition from private schools following the passage of Senate Bill 2,” said Blake Heller, report co-author and assistant professor at the Hobby School of Public Affairs.
Enrollment declines were most pronounced in entry grades, including kindergarten, first grade and ninth grade, suggesting families are opting out when faced with enrollment decisions.
“The report clearly documents that enrollment declines in HISD have accelerated following the state takeover of the district,” Heller said. “The fact that the post-takeover enrollment declines are the largest in entry grades — early elementary and early high school lost the largest shares of students — suggests that when families are faced with an active decision, they are increasingly choosing to opt out of the district.”
The study also documents sharp changes to the district’s teaching workforce. Since the takeover, the number of first-year teachers has grown substantially, while the share of uncertified teachers has risen to nearly one in five.
“Research shows that more experienced and certified teachers are those most influential on positive student outcomes,” Templeton said. “HISD’s decision to hire more inexperienced, uncertified teachers with the hopes of making lasting change is an untested experiment.”
Teacher retention has declined significantly, particularly among educators with 16 or more years of experience.
Templeton said the findings may serve as a warning for other Texas districts facing state takeovers.