HOUSTON – Early Monday morning the tropical low we followed as it crossed the Caribbean last week has moved into the Bay of Campeche.
The low is moving toward the west-northwest at about 12 mph. High pressure extending from the southeastern United States into Texas is producing a steady westward steering current around this tropical wave. The high is forecast to remain in place thus our system is forecast with confidence to move into Mexico late Tuesday night or early Wednesday.
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Early Monday the center was located just off the coast near Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico. Based on the steady forecast track, the center should cross the Mexican coast in the general vicinity of Tampico.
How much will this low develop? At this time conditions are marginal for further development. The center is currently close to land, a modest northerly wind shear is in place and is displacing thunderstorms to the south and east, and there may be some dry air over the Bay to contend with.
However, the water temperature is approaching 90 degrees and as the low moves into the open waters away from land we expect a tropical depression or storm to develop. None of our reliable models forecast the system to strengthen to a hurricane due to the marginal conditions for intensification. The National Hurricane Center gives our low a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm.
Heavy rain producing flash floods and mudslides are the main impacts forecast for Mexico from this system. It poses no threat to southeast Texas.
Elsewhere the tropics were exceptionally quiet for the first of September.