One franchise cornerstone on the infield down, another to go.
With the Astros agreeing to a 5-year, $125 million extension with second baseman Jose Altuve on Tuesday, now the focus turns to All-Star third baseman Alex Bregman’s contract situation.
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Bregman, who will turn 30 in March, is in the last year of a six-year, $100 million contract signed in 2019 and is set to hit free agency after this season.
Astros general manager Dana Brown said in December that the team has no interest in trading Bregman. But letting him hit free agency is a big risk, especially since Bregman’s agent is the famed Scott Boras, arguably the best ever at negotiating big bucks for his clients.
Here are the pros and cons of the Astros locking up Bregman the same way Altuve was.
Pros
- There’s no suitable replacement in the organization. Unlike when Jeremy Pena was ready to take over at shortstop when Carlos Correa left the Astros as a free agent, Bregman doesn’t have a suitable replacement right away. The organization’s two best third base prospects, Zach Dezenzo and Will Wagner, have primarily been in the lower minor leagues and are considered limited defensively at the position despite showing promise offensively. The outlook could change if Dezenzo, Wagner or someone else really steps up in the minors this year. But for now, there’s nobody like Pena waiting to take over.
- Bregman could still have 2-3 prime years in a new deal. When Bregman begins his new contract in 2025, he will be 31 years old. Knowing that, any team that invests in him knows it should get at least a couple years of top-notch production. If he was going to be 34 or 35, it might be a different story.
- The chance to stay with one organization for life. Born and bred an Astro, this is a rare opportunity for a perennial All-Star to stay with one organization for his whole career. That would not only be good for him and the organization, but for fans as well to know one of their homegrown stars that can be identified with won’t ever wear another uniform.
Cons
- Bregman might have already reached his peak. From 2018-19, Bregman batted .291 with 72 home runs and more walks (215) than strikeouts (168). From 2021-23, he’s still been good, but his numbers have gone down a bit. In 2023, Bregman batted .292 with 25 home runs, 92 walks and 87 strikeouts.
- It’s risky to give out a long-term contract to a player in his 30s. While Bregman could play up to the value of a jackpot contract in his first two or three years, the later years of such a contract could be another matter as he ages. With Boras leading things, any extension would likely be in the 6-to-8 year range (possibly near $30 million a year), pushing the end of the contract into Bregman’s late 30s. That could mean multiple years on the back end where Bregman is being paid handsomely for decreased production and the value of the contract is an albatross for the organization.
- Money has to be saved or other pending free agents. With Altuve already locked up, if the Astros decide to do the same for Bregman, you’d have to wonder what money would be left for other stars who are nearing free agency. For example, both Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez will both be free agents after the 2025 season and are set to cash in also.
Why not just trade Bregman?
As mentioned above, Brown has already said there are no plans to trade Bregman. But it could be something to think about as the season progresses. Say the Astros get off to a slow start and are significantly behind other contenders come June or July, it could be tempting to see what other teams would be willing to offer so the Astros can get something for Bregman beyond just a compensatory draft pick should he leave in free agency.
Of course, all that will go out the window if the Astros are once again World Series contenders and understandably want to keep one of their core players in place for another title run.
Regardless of what happens, beyond wins and losses and whether the Astros can contend for another World Series in 2024, the most-talked about issue all year will be Bregman’s contract situation.