Hurricane season is over 90 days away, and NOAA is already forecasting some changes in our El Nino Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short.
Enso is a climate pattern that brings warming and cooling to the Pacific Ocean due to changes in trade winds. These wind and temperature changes have three categories: El Nino, Neutral, and La Nina.
ENSO influences weather conditions across the world. Here on the Gulf Coast, it is essential to monitor for hurricane season. NOAA has forecasted a 55% chance that La Nina will develop in June and last through August.
If La Nina develops, that means more activity during hurricane season. La Nina may bring warmer temperatures to the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico, which help storms form. La Nina also means less wind shear. Wind shear is a change in wind with height, and tropical storms and hurricanes develop better if wind shear is not present.
Historically, when La Nina developed, there were more hurricanes, tropical storms, and disturbances in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic than in the El Nino years.