Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal borders of Guinea and Sierra Leone, to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W, to 04N/05N between 21W and 33W, to 03N40W and 02N49W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 04N to 08N between 13W and 18W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 10N southward from 50W eastward.

Middle level cyclonic wind flow, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong precipitation, are from 10N southward between 40W and 60W, with a nearby inverted trough.

, GULF OF MEXICO, Corrected

A dissipating stationary front passes through the Florida Panhandle, to the coastal waters of SE Louisiana. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 23N96W. A surface trough extends from the low pressure center to 24N92W 27N88W 28N84W, through Florida, to 31N81W in the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 23N to 29N between Florida and 91W.

A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough passes through 19N100W, to 17N96W. Precipitation: earlier scattered moderate to isolated strong, that has been in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico during the last few hours, has been weakening with time.

Slight seas are from 24N southward from 93W westward, and elsewhere from 93W westward. Moderate seas are from 24N northward between 90W and 93W. Slight to moderate seas are from 90W eastward. Mostly moderate to some fresh winds cover the area.

Areas of haze and smoke, from agricultural fires that are in Mexico, are in most of the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. The visibilities are being reduced in some cases.

A dissipating stationary front extends from near Apalachicola, Florida southwestward to near 28N90W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are between a line from 29N83W to 26N89W to 24N94W and a line from 27N82W to 25N87W to 23N88W. This activity is being supported by a mid to upper-level trough that extends from the southeastern U.S. To the central Gulf. The front and associated weather will shift E to SE through Mon, when the front will dissipate across the SE Gulf. Ahead of the front, moderate to fresh return flow will prevail this morning then gradually diminish through Mon. Meanwhile, hazy conditions due to agricultural fires in Mexico continue across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Moderate to locally fresh SE return flow will develop again across the W Gulf Tue through Thu night.

Caribbean Sea

Strong NE winds, and rough seas, are within 240 nm of the coast of Colombia between 72W and 79W. Mostly fresh to some moderate NE winds are elsewhere from the Greater Antilles southward between 70W and 80W. Gentle winds are in the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are from 70W eastward. Moderate to fresh SE winds, and rough seas, are in the NW corner of the area now. Some strong to near gale-force SE winds were from 83W westward, during the late night/early morning hours of today. Moderate seas are from 80W eastward. Slight seas are elsewhere from 80W westward.

Areas of haze and smoke, from agricultural fires that are in Central America, are in parts of the Caribbean Sea, and in the Gulf of Honduras. The visibilities are being reduced in some cases.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 74W in Colombia, beyond 84W in Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is in Panama and Costa Rica between 80W and 84W. Scattered to numerous strong is from 06N to 08N between 77W and 79W.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 19/1200 UTC, are: 0.59 in Trinidad; and 0.01 in Guadeloupe. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

A weak and narrow Atlantic ridge extends westward along 24N/25N and into the NW Bahamas. The associated pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over SE Mexico is supporting fresh to strong E to SE winds across the Gulf of Honduras, and fresh to locally strong E winds in the south- central Caribbean. Winds in the Gulf of Honduras will become moderate to fresh today through Mon. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia through early Mon then shift eastward to offshore of NW Venezuela through Tue night. A vigorous middle to upper-level trough will dig southward across the western Caribbean Mon night through Thu, and support very active weather over the central portions E of 80W Tue through Thu night. Smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America continues across the Gulf of Honduras and areas of the northwestern Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front is along 33N/34N from 70W westward. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated to widely scattered strong, in clusters, are from 26N northward from 70W westward.

A surface trough passes through 31N54W, to 27N60W 26N66W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 24N northward between 46W and 53W.

A north-to-south oriented surface trough is from 13N to 31N between 41W and 44W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 24N northward between 34W and 45W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N to 20N between 35W and 60W. Nearby upper level anticyclonic wind flow is pushing multilayered moisture toward the northeast, from 10N to 26N between 24W and 60W.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 19/1200 UTC, are: 0.21 in Freeport in the Bahamas; and 0.01 in Bermuda. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

Slight seas are from 19N northward from the 31N41W-to-13N44W surface trough westward; and from 21N northward between 23W and the same 31N41W-13N44W surface trough. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to fresh NE winds are to the south of the line: 22N20W 20N37W 18N60W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A weak frontal trough extends from 31N55W southwestward to 27N60W and to 26N67W, while a narrow high pressure ridge extends E to W to the south of the trough along 24N/25N and into the NW Bahamas. The trough will shift eastward through this afternoon as it weakens further, allowing the ridge to build modestly into the region E of 72W Mon and Tue. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move from the NW waters southeastward through this evening, ahead of an upper-level trough. Behind this feature, a new front will sink southward into the waters offshore of Georgia and NE Florida early Mon, and move southeastward and stall from near 31N72W to SE Florida late Tue. A trough will develop southeast of the weakening front and extend into the central Bahamas early on Wed, and drift eastward through Thu night. Low pressure is expected to form along the trough near 24N68W Thu evening and move NE.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Mt/Ja