HOUSTON – Hey guys, it’s Ari Alexander with your Astros newsletter.
This is not the start anyone envisioned, with the Astros having their worst opening to a season since 2011. That team finished 56-106 and got GM Ed Wade fired. That team wasn’t losing 106 games on purpose like the next two Astros teams. This team isn’t losing on purpose either but nonetheless, this is the worst start imaginable. Let’s get into it...
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WHAT?
The Astros combined a lack of timely hitting, a lack of power (2 home runs in four games) and a lack of ability to hold a lead. Houston had the lead over the hated Yankees for the first three games, and blew all three of those games. In games 1 and 2 they were missing Bryan Abreu due to his ALCS suspension. In game 3, Abreu came in and blew the lead with his fastball down nearly a full tick (96.8 MPH vs. 97.6 MPH). In Sunday’s game, Abreu looked more like himself, but the fastball was still down.
That’s how you get 0-4.
HOW?
Mostly the bullpen, and somewhat the lineup. Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez’s “slow starts” are more the product of bad batted ball luck. Chas McCormick, other than a 2-run single to open the scoring for the Astros season has struggled, and Jose Abreu has been atrocious. Abreu is 0-11 to start the season, serving reminder’s of last year’s slow start. His backup, Jon Singleton, got a hit Sunday, but is not likely to factor in outside of pinch hit appearances and rest days for Abreu. The Astros have to get production out of Abreu, who is in the 2nd year of a 3-year, $58.5 million deal.
The bullpen, oy the bullpen. Houston decided to upgrade the top of the pen, signing one of MLB’s top closers Josh Hader to a 5-year, $95 million deal. It solidified what is supposed to be the best back end in baseball, but that idea faltered in Saturday’s loss to the Yankees. Houston’s 7th and 8th inning setup men, Abreu and Ryan Pressly, gave up 4 runs in the loss.
What Houston didn’t address was its middle relief problem. The Astros lost more than 200 innings from Hector Neris (now on the Cubs), Phil Maton (now on the Rays), Ryne Stanek (now on the Mariners) and Kendall Graveman (out for 2024 with an injury). They replaced those four arms with one Hader. It leaves Seth Martinez to fill in Maton’s role. Abreu is essentially in Neris’ role while Pressly is in Abreu’s role. That still leaves the innings from Stanek and Graveman to be filled by new and/or unproven players. Tayler Scott is getting the first crack at high leverage innings due to his spring performance, but the only South African player in MLB came into 2024 with a career 9.00 ERA. Parker Mushinski and Brandon Bielak fill out the end of the bullpen.
Then there’s Rafael Montero. Montero was electric in 2022, helping the Astros to a World Series with a career year. The GM-less Astros, run by owner Jim Crane signed him to a 3-year, $34.5 million extension, making him the highest paid non-closer in baseball at the time. Montero had an awful 2023, and started 2024 by serving up a game-tying home run Thursday. Montero will continue to get every chance to prove he can succeed due to his salary. It’s early, but his fastball is also way down in velocity, averaging 94.2 with the four-seam and 94.4 with the sinker. In 2023 those numbers were 96.1 and 95.5. In 2022 they were 96.4 and 95.9.
MINOR LEAGUE MINUT
Triple-A Sugar Land opened its season and spring training darling OF/1B Joey Loperfido has already made an impact. “Joey Cooks” already has 3 home runs in 3 games. Loperfido is knocking on the door.
Top pitching prospect Spencer Arrighetti started the Space Cowboys’ opener, pitching 4.1 innings of 2 hit ball. He struck out 5, but walked 5. Arrighetti has a chance for a call-up if the Astros have starting pitcher injuries, as they wait for Justin Verlander and Jose Urquidy to return.
INJURY UPDATE
Justin Verlander will throw a 50-pitch live bullpen next, then will go out on at least two rehab starts, per the Astros. Jose Urquidy has been playing catch and progressing fine.
WHAT’S NEXT
The Astros host the Blue Jays for a three-game series Monday-Wednesday as they look for their first win. Then it’s the team’s first road trip as they face their rival and defending champion Texas Rangers in Arlington Friday through Monday.