Special Features

Eastern Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: Pulsing gale-force winds are forecast in the Agadir area of the Meteo-France high seas forecast until 16/00 UTC, and then again from 16/12 UTC to 16/21 UTC. Seas in the 8-11 ft range are possible with these winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes near 11N15W to 06.5N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06.5N20W to 04N40W and to 06N50.5W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01.5N to 07N and east of 2W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 24.5W and 41W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend SW to the central Gulf near 26N87W where it transitions to a stationary front that continues to Tamiahua, Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue across the eastern Gulf from 25.5N to 27N between 83W and 86W tonight in association with a pre-frontal trough per recent satellite imagery. Gentle to moderate SW winds are east of the front, except fresh to localized strong SE winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate E winds are found west of the front. Seas are slight to moderate across the entire basin.

For the forecast, the front will lift as a warm front over the western half of the basin tonight into Thu while it stalls E of 90W. This will shift the focus of heavy rain and thunderstorms to the NW Gulf on Thu through the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the basin, pulsing to locally strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche. Winds will slightly weaken Sun into early next week as the gradient relaxes. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in Mexico continues across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche.

Caribbean Sea

A 1019 mb high pressure centered near 29N55.5W is supporting fresh to strong easterly winds offshore of central and eastern Honduras, as well as in the south-central Caribbean, including portions of the Gulf of Venezuela. Mainly moderate E to SE winds prevail across the remainder of the basin, except light and variable in the southwest Caribbean south of 12N. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range east of 70W, and in the 5-8 ft range west of 70W. Isolated moderate convection is noted in the southwest Caribbean south of 13.5N.

For the forecast, strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras will persist through Sun, reaching near gale-force speeds Fri evening into Sat morning. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia through Sun evening. Moderate to rough seas are expected with these winds. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere through early next week. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in Central America continues across areas in the NW Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the East Atlantic Ocean.

Fresh to locally strong SW winds and moderate seas are ongoing N of 28N between the NE Florida offshore waters and 69W as a cold front begins to move off the Florida coast. Heavy showers and thunderstorms with frequent lightning and gusty winds are occurring N of 26N and W of 67W along a pre-frontal trough. Otherwise, ridging extends over the rest of the Southwest North Atlantic offshore waters. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are there, due to the influence of this high.

In the central Atlantic, a weak cold front extends from 31N46W to the remnant trough near 24N52.5W. East of the front another surface trough is producing scattered moderate convection north of 27.5N between 33.5W and 41W.

In the eastern Atlantic, a 1029 mb high pressure north of the area near 42N33W dominates the waters. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds prevail across the open waters and moderate seas, except fresh to strong N to NE winds north of 18N between the coast of Africa and 20W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will continue pushing off the NE Florida coast tonight and extend from 31N73W to Freeport Thu afternoon, from 31N65W to 27N69W Fri afternoon and weaken as it extends from 31N61W to 28N71W Sat morning. Fresh to strong winds are forecast ahead of the front through Fri night along with showers and thunderstorms. Conditions will improve Sat as the front dissipates. Tranquil conditions are expected the remainder weekend.

Posted 1 hour, 48 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Krv