Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 04N36W. The ITCZ extends from 04N36W to 06N57W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 09N and east of 27W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A few showers are seen on satellite imagery in the SE Gulf of Mexico waters, while fairly tranquil conditions prevail in the rest of the basin. A weak pressure gradient is evident across the Gulf, supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds off northern Yucatan and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas are found in the Gulf, with the highest seas around 5 ft near 27N97W. Dense haze is also occurring in the western and central Gulf from agricultural fires in Mexico, including the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, a cold front extends across the northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead of it, scattered moderate convection and gusty moderate winds are noted S of 26N and E of 88W. This activity is supported by a mid to upper-level trough that extends from the southeastern U.S. Coast southwestward to the south- central Gulf. This weather will continue to shift E to SE across the eastern Gulf, reaching the vicinity of the Florida Keys Mon night and the Straits of Florida Tue. Gusty winds along with rough seas will prevail near the convection. Moderate to fresh SE winds prevail elsewhere, with slight seas. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires in Mexico continue across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche.

Caribbean Sea

A few storms that developed earlier today over Panama are affecting the nearshore waters of this country in the SW Caribbean Sea. A generally dry environment is present elsewhere. Surface ridging extends across the basin anchored by high pressure centered NE of the Caribbean. This is supporting widespread fresh to strong E to NE winds in the south-central basin, including the Gulf of Venezuela. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas are 6-9 ft in this area. Additionally, moderate to fresh easterly winds are occurring in the north- central and SE Caribbean, and the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are prevalent.

Dense haze caused from agricultural fires in Mexico is noted across portions of the NW Caribbean, northward from the northern coast of Honduras to southern Quintana Roo, including the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, a weak Atlantic surface ridge extends westward along 25N and into the N Bahamas. The associated pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over SE Mexico is supporting pulsing fresh to strong E to SE winds across the Gulf of Honduras, and fresh to locally strong E winds in the south- central Caribbean. The winds in the Gulf of Honduras will diminish to fresh speeds overnight. The fresh to strong E winds in the south-central Caribbean will shift eastward to offshore of NW Venezuela through Tue night and diminish early on Wed. A deep layer trough will dig southward across the western Caribbean Mon night through Fri, supporting active weather E of 80W Tue through Fri. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will develop in the central Caribbean Tue and shift eastward through Thu while diminishing to mostly fresh speeds. Smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America continues across the Gulf of Honduras, but appears to be thinning out.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from a low pressure near Bermuda to NE Florida. A combination of an upper level trough entering the western Atlantic and tropical moisture support a few showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 75W. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, are dominated by a broad subtropical ridge. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that moderate to fresh southerly winds are found north of 26N and west of 60W. Seas in these waters are 2-4 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are present south of 23N and west of 65W. Elsewhere west of 55W, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

The central and eastern Atlantic are influenced by the 1024 mb high pressure system south of the Azores. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in NW Africa sustain moderate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 4-6 ft north of 12N and east of 22W. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned front will sink southward into the waters offshore of Georgia and NE Florida early Mon, and move southeastward and stall from near 31N72W to SE Florida late Tue. A trough will develop southeast of the weakening front and extend into the central Bahamas early on Wed, and drift eastward through Fri night. Low pressure is expected to form along the trough near 24N68W Thu evening and move NE through Fri night.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado