Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 13N16W and continues southwestward to 02N25W. The ITCZ extends from 02N25W to 01245W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 04N to 06N between 10W and 20W.

Gulf Of Mexico

Scattered moderate convection persists over the northwest Gulf of Mexico, and off the western Florida panhandle, along a trough extending from roughly Pensacola to off Tampico, Mexico. High pressure over the western Atlantic is supporting gentle to moderate SE winds across the Gulf, along with 3 to 5 ft combined seas. Light to moderate smoke from agricultural fires over southern Mexico are creating hazy conditions for much of the southwest Gulf.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in Texas and Mexico will support fresh to occasionally strong winds in the western half of the Gulf Wed night into the weekend. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail in the eastern half of the Gulf. Winds will pulse to strong speeds nightly near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula due to local effects induced by a thermal trough.

Caribbean Sea

Recent scatterometer satellite passes indicated moderate to fresh trade winds across the central Caribbean today, with strong winds pulsing south of Hispaniola of Cabo Beata, and off the coast of northeast Colombia These winds are active between strong high pressure north of the area over the western Atlantic, and lower pressure to the south over Colombia. Concurrent altimeter satellite passes showed 4 to 6 ft combined seas, reaching 7 ft south of Haiti. Scatterometer data also showed fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of Honduras north of Roatan, where combined seas are likely 4 to 6 ft. Moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft are noted elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active south of Puerto Rico.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area is expected to slide eastward and weaken some over the next few days, resulting in mainly gentle to moderate trade winds midweek and into the weekend. Northerly swell will support rough seas through the passages in the NE Caribbean through Wed.

Atlantic Ocean

1021 mb high pressure is centered between Bermuda and northeast Florida near 30N70W. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N38W to 25N42W, then it becomes stationary to 21N52W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated this pattern is supporting fresh winds off the north coast of Hispaniola and across the Old Bahama Channel north of eastern Cuba. Buoy observations and earlier altimeter satellite data show combined seas of 8 to 10 ft west of the front as far west as 65W, and reaching as far south to almost Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. A scatterometer pass showed fresh to strong SW winds north of 29N between 55W and 60W, ahead of a weak cold front east of Bermuda. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere west of 35W. Farther east, high pressure east of the Azores is supporting a large area of fresh to strong NE winds and 8 to 11 ft over the eastern Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds will continue over the waters south of 22N and west of 60W through Wed, including in the approaches of the Windward Passage. The high pressure will move eastward while weakening some. A surface trough may develop just north of Hispaniola over the next 48 hours and move east toward the waters just north of Puerto Rico by the end of the work week.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen