Frank's Weather or Not: Who won our Model Test?

By Frank Billingsley - Chief Meteorologist

Tuesday Morning 7am 2/19/2019

HOUSTON - Last Friday I wrote about the new FV3-GFS, which goes operational on March 20 replacing the current GFS. The current has been around since before supercomputers and so the new one will be able to process more data, thus improving the forecast. I've noticed that the new FV3-GFS is often in closer agreement with the EURO. 

So, just for fun, I showed you the different model's forecast from last Friday for Tuesday's rain at 7am, to see which would came closest. Here's what my Exact Track showed:

Tuesday Morning 7am 2/19/2019

We have to keep in mind there was a lot of mist across SE Texas that the radar wouldn't pick up, but generally we had light rain here with a few thunderstorms in East Texas into Northern Louisiana and Mississippi, stretching to Northern Georgia and the Carolinas. 

The old GFS predicted:

The "old" GFS

Not bad for guidance, but a bit overdone. The up and coming FV3-GFS predicted this:

The "new" FV3-GFS

More accurate, especially since we had a lot of totals less than a tenth of an inch. The Euro forecast:

The European Model

Pretty close especially since this model shows rainfall accumulation and the heavier rains was certainly north of us. So the winner is......us.....we will have two great global forecast models to look at and the one that consistently predicts better for any particular event will be the one to really watch. I do think that we'll find the FV3 and EURO pretty well in sinc from now on, but we'll see. The days of 'this model is better than that one' are gone. The days of using all the models and making the best forecast are here.

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I read a recent story on line in EarthSky all about Stonehenge and other ancient monoliths (fancy name for big rock structure). Just when they first originated, where and possibly why. The article rocks and it is here.

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Finally, I'm out today on a medical check up so I leave you with this one that I just made up:

What did the fog say to Frank? Sorry I mist you!!

 

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