Frank's Weather Or Not: Barry-ied Under Water

By Frank Billingsley - Chief Meteorologist

HOUSTON - The buckets are still pouring from Hurricane Barry, now a weak Tropical Depression with training rainbands across Louisiana and Mississippi.

Remember my Rainfall Rule of Thumb? Barry came ashore Saturday afternoon moving northwest at 6 to 7mph. Do that quick math for rainfall potential at any given spot: 100/6 = 16" of rain 100/7 = 14". You can see the Doppler Estimated rainfall as of today and it's easy to find those kind of totals (and possibly more with this relentless training going on!):

Lake Charles Doppler estimates for rainfall

Flood Warnings continue through tomorrow morning for much of the state. 

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You might be wondering which model forecasted the best--the Euro or the American?  It's easy to cherry-pick which might be winning or losing at a particular time period, but the American had a persistent easterly bias while the Euro persistently stayed west. At the end, the storm made a landfall at Intracoastal City, LA which is on the WEST side of Vermilion Bay.

 

So it would seem the Euro takes first place, the American second and the UKmet was out to lunch (usually considered a second place model--it finally came off its SE Texas track late Friday). The National Hurricane Center gave greater weight to the Euro during the forecast period because the Euro did the better job initializing the storm to begin with, so the confidence factor started early with that model. At the end of the day, Louisiana was prepared and that is what counts! Let's hope this spigot turns off soon!

Cheers,

Frank

 

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