Disturbance 95L over Bay of Campeche

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HOUSTON - A tropical disturbance, designated 95L by the National Hurricane Center, moved into the southern Bay of Campeche overnight.

It is moving toward the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph. The cold front moving through Texas Friday and approaching the coast Saturday could slow 95L down, but not before it gets close to or moves across the coast of northeast Mexico.

I was somewhat surprised to see pressures had risen in the area of 95L since Wednesday. The possible low level center (red circle) is displaced north of the active thunderstorms so indeed, little organization has happened since Wednesday.  Wind shear persists over the western Gulf and current model forecasts indicate shear will remain an inhibiting factor for some time. With time running out and less than ideal environmental conditions, 95L might struggle to become a depression before reaching the coast of Mexico. 

Rainfall for Mexico, where they do not need it, is the biggest concern the next several days from 95L.

On the west coast of Mexico, Manuel surprised me and intensified to a hurricane before making landfall Thursday morning in Sinaloa state. The remnants of Manuel should move northeast into Texas and could merge with both our approaching cold front and the remnants of 95L in northeast Mexico and far south Texas. Potential for very heavy rainfall will exist Friday and Saturday to our south.

This is a complicated weather pattern and I suspect the forecast will change as events evolve.  Stay tuned!

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